The School of Odds

Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets

2026-07-16 23:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 54.40%1.84fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.850%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.39%54.35%55.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.751.761.8160%57%57%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 45.60%2.19fair odd
EV -0.589%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.499%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.61%45.65%47.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.092.102.1851%48%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -1.54%E -0.850%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -6.06%E -2.94%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-15 18:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.08%E -1.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.80%E -4.40%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-15 19:29
GTbets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -3.17%E -1.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -0.589%E -0.270%K -0.499%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-15 16:50
BetUS1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -3.17%E -1.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.05%E -0.482%K -0.893%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-15 16:49
Pinnacle1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -3.17%E -1.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.05%E -0.482%K -0.893%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-15 17:59
BetOnline.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -3.17%E -1.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -1.50%E -0.695%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-15 16:50
LowVig.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -3.17%E -1.78%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -1.50%E -0.695%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-15 16:50
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 17:44
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 17:53
PointsBet (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 18:33
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-15 18:45
SportsBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.52%E -3.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 18:59
Neds1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.52%E -3.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 17:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.71%E -2.10%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.52%E -3.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-15 17:44
MyBookie.ag1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.26%E -2.42%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.33%E -1.57%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-15 18:34
Bet Right1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.26%E -2.42%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.15%E -2.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-15 19:20
NordicBet1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.26%E -2.42%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.61%E -2.71%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 17:38
Betsson1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.26%E -2.42%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.61%E -2.71%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 17:44
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.80%E -2.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -1.96%E -0.910%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-15 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.80%E -2.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 17:39
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.80%E -2.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-15 17:38
PlayUp1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.80%E -2.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.15%E -2.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 17:39
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.80%E -2.74%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.15%E -2.48%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-15 16:49
Bovada1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -5.35%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-15 17:44
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -5.35%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -2.87%E -1.35%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-15 18:40
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.35%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-15 17:39
Winamax (DE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.35%E -3.07%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.52%E -3.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-15 18:40
Betr (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.89%E -3.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-15 17:24
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.89%E -3.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.24%E -2.02%K -3.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-15 17:50
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.89%E -3.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -5.61%E -2.71%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-15 18:29
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.98%E -4.08%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.96%E -0.910%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-15 19:29
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -8.07%E -4.77%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -6.52%E -3.18%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-15 17:39
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.37%EV -9.15%E -5.48%K -13.66%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.63%EV -9.25%E -4.65%K -9.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-15 19:30
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 54.40%EV -9.70%E -5.84%K -14.69%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.60%EV -9.71%E -4.90%K -9.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-15 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%0.3%2026-07-15 19:20
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-07-15 16:54
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.50%9.9%2026-07-15 18:34