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Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Phillies (Local)
Prediction 53.19%1.88fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.861%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.22%53.25%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.801.801.8557.14%55.59%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New York Mets (Visit)
Prediction 46.81%2.14fair odd
EV -0.769%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -0.686%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%46.78%46.75%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.042.1251.28%49.07%49.02%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 53.19%; New York Mets (Visit): 46.81%. For New York Mets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.12, with an expected value of -0.769%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -1.59%E -0.861%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -2.64%E -1.27%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| GTbets | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -1.59%E -0.861%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.11%E -1.50%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -1.59%E -0.861%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -3.58%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -1.59%E -0.861%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -3.58%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| Everygame | 1.84I 54.35%NM 53.18%EV -2.13%E -1.16%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.82%EV -2.17%E -1.04%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-07-16 21:45 |
| 1xBet | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV -2.66%E -1.45%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -0.769%E -0.363%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 1.8% | 2026-07-16 20:05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.66%E -1.45%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -1.24%E -0.586%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-07-16 21:05 |
| BetAnything | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.66%E -1.45%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.58%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-16 22:09 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -2.66%E -1.45%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Fliff | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -2.66%E -1.45%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -8.73%E -4.47%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| BetRivers | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -3.19%E -1.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -2.64%E -1.27%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -3.19%E -1.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -2.64%E -1.27%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.19%E -1.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.19%E -1.75%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| FanDuel | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.58%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Bally Bet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| betPARX | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Casumo | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Unibet | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.72%E -2.06%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.11%E -1.50%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-16 21:14 |
| Fanatics | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 19:40 |
| Caesars | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 21:08 |
| TAB | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 20:30 |
| ReBet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 21:10 |
| BetMGM | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 19:00 |
| Coral | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 18:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-16 20:05 |
| DraftKings | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-16 21:55 |
| PlayUp | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 21:55 |
| Neds | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 19:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 19:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| TABtouch | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| William Hill | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-16 22:05 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-16 22:09 |
| Betway | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.25%E -2.36%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.73%E -4.47%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Bovada | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.79%E -2.67%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -3.58%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-16 21:05 |
| SportsBet | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.79%E -2.67%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -4.98%E -2.45%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.79%E -2.67%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| Betsson | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.79%E -2.67%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.45%E -2.70%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| Coolbet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.32%E -2.99%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-16 21:45 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.32%E -2.99%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-16 21:55 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.32%E -2.99%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-16 22:08 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -5.32%E -2.99%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.32%E -3.70%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.85%E -3.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.70%E -0.812%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-16 05:20 |
| theScore Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.85%E -3.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.70%E -0.812%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-16 06:39 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -5.85%E -3.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -2.64%E -1.27%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-16 21:30 |
| Bet Right | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -5.85%E -3.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -4.51%E -2.21%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-16 22:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -5.85%E -3.30%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -7.79%E -3.95%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-16 21:35 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.38%E -3.63%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-16 20:05 |
| 888sport | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-16 20:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-16 20:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-16 20:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.05%E -1.97%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-16 21:15 |
| LeoVegas | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.39%E -3.19%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -6.91%E -3.95%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -8.26%E -4.21%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-16 22:08 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.48% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.52% | -0.0% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Novig | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75% | 0.4% | 2026-07-16 22:09 |
| ProphetX | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25% | 0.6% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| BetOpenly | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.63% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.37% | 0.8% | 2026-07-16 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-16 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Matchbook | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73% | 0.9% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.0% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56% | 2.3% | 2026-07-16 22:10 |