The School of Odds

Philadelphia Phillies v New York Mets

2026-07-18 20:06 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Prediction 59.29%1.69fair odd
EV -0.392%
Edge -0.233%
Kelly -0.577%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.42%59.28%59.32%60.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.541.601.601.6865%62%63%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New York Mets (Visit)

Prediction 40.71%2.46fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.613%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.72%40.68%41.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.4245%43%43%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -0.392%E -0.233%K -0.577%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -3.93%E -1.66%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-17 19:04
LowVig.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -2.76%E -1.69%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -1.48%E -0.613%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:34
BetOnline.ag1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%EV -2.76%E -1.69%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%EV -1.48%E -0.613%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:34
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.36%E -2.06%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 17:40
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.36%E -2.06%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 19:04
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -3.95%E -2.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.52%E -1.48%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 18:59
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.95%E -2.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:08
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.95%E -2.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 18:14
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.11%E -1.31%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 17:35
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 17:34
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 18:59
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 20:14
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.54%E -2.82%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.74%E -2.03%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 17:44
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 17:44
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 17:44
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 17:44
Dabble (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 18:59
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.15%E -2.21%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:59
betano_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 18:57
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.14%E -3.21%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 18:59
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.73%E -3.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 17:44
Betclic (FR)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.73%E -3.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -5.96%E -2.58%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 18:57
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.73%E -3.60%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.37%E -2.77%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 20:09
Fliff1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.30%E -0.957%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 18:39
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.11%E -1.31%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-17 17:34
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.91%E -4.40%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.33%E -1.84%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 17:35
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.51%E -4.81%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.40%E -3.73%K -6.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-17 20:09
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 58.82%EV -8.69%E -5.64%K -16.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -10.44%E -4.74%K -8.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-17 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-17 20:09
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-17 19:54
Novig1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%2.1%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 58.67%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%10.0%2026-07-17 19:00
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 57.92%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%12.1%2026-07-17 20:10