The School of Odds

Minnesota Twins v Cleveland Guardians

2026-07-07 23:41 — MLB

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Option 1: Minnesota Twins (Local)

Odds
1.7258.14%Min
1.8155.14%Mean
1.8055.56%Median
1.8853.19%Max
Consensus probabilities
50.53%1.979Min
53.25%1.878Max
52.60%1.901Mean
52.63%1.900Median
52.58%1.902IQM
52.58%1.902Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.88 under the IQM model: 52.58%

EV -1.15%Edge -0.614%Kelly -1.31%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Cleveland Guardians (Visit)

Odds
1.9052.63%Min
2.0049.95%Mean
2.0050.00%Median
2.0748.31%Max
Consensus probabilities
46.75%2.139Min
49.47%2.021Max
47.40%2.110Mean
47.37%2.111Median
47.42%2.109IQM
47.42%2.109Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.07 under the IQM model: 47.42%

EV -1.84%Edge -0.886%Kelly -1.71%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMinnesota Twins (Local) ▼Cleveland Guardians (Visit)MarginUpdated
Dabble (AU)1.88I 53.19% NM 50.53%EV -1.15% E -0.614% K -1.31% G +0.000%1.92I 52.08% NM 49.47%EV -8.95% E -4.66% K -9.73% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-06 20:29
GTbets1.87I 53.48% NM 52.30%EV -1.68% E -0.899% K -1.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 47.70%EV -2.78% E -1.36% K -2.65% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 17:44
BetUS1.87I 53.48% NM 52.30%EV -1.68% E -0.899% K -1.93% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 47.70%EV -2.78% E -1.36% K -2.65% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-06 19:29
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48% NM 52.17%EV -1.68% E -0.899% K -1.93% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 47.83%EV -3.26% E -1.60% K -3.13% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-06 17:45
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48% NM 52.17%EV -1.68% E -0.899% K -1.93% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 47.83%EV -3.26% E -1.60% K -3.13% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-06 17:39
1xBet1.86I 53.76% NM 52.67%EV -2.21% E -1.19% K -2.57% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 47.33%EV -1.84% E -0.886% K -1.71% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-06 18:35
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -3.78% E -2.07% K -4.56% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 18:10
Caesars1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -3.78% E -2.07% K -4.56% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-06 20:30
Fliff1.83I 54.64% NM 51.59%EV -3.78% E -2.07% K -4.56% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.41%EV -7.53% E -3.86% K -7.92% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-06 17:44
FanDuel1.82I 54.95% NM 52.85%EV -4.31% E -2.37% K -5.26% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 47.15%EV -3.26% E -1.60% K -3.13% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-06 17:40
Bet Right1.82I 54.95% NM 52.60%EV -4.31% E -2.37% K -5.26% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 47.40%EV -4.21% E -2.08% K -4.12% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-06 17:50
PlayUp1.82I 54.95% NM 52.36%EV -4.31% E -2.37% K -5.26% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.64%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-06 17:50
Fanatics1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -2.78% E -1.36% K -2.65% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 18:15
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -2.78% E -1.36% K -2.65% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-06 18:24
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.88%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 47.12%EV -4.21% E -2.08% K -4.12% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-06 17:45
SportsBet1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:40
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:39
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:45
888sport1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:50
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:50
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:50
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:50
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 17:54
William Hill1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -5.36% E -2.98% K -6.70% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -5.15% E -2.58% K -5.15% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-06 18:25
Betclic (FR)1.79I 55.87% NM 52.65%EV -5.89% E -3.29% K -7.45% G +0.000%1.99I 50.25% NM 47.35%EV -5.63% E -2.83% K -5.69% G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-06 17:43
ReBet1.77I 56.50% NM 52.42%EV -6.94% E -3.92% K -9.01% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 47.58%EV -7.53% E -3.86% K -7.92% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-06 17:44
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80% NM 52.60%EV -9.04% E -5.23% K -12.39% G +0.000%1.92I 52.08% NM 47.40%EV -8.95% E -4.66% K -9.73% G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-06 17:45
Winamax (FR)1.72I 58.14% NM 52.49%EV -9.57% E -5.56% K -13.29% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 47.51%EV -9.90% E -5.21% K -11.00% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-06 17:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerMinnesota Twins (Local)Cleveland Guardians (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.92I 52.08% NM 52.00%2.08I 48.08% NM 48.00%0.2%2026-07-06 19:35
Polymarket1.92I 52.08% NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54% NM 48.24%0.6%2026-07-06 19:45
Novig1.77I 56.50% NM 52.80%1.98I 50.51% NM 47.20%7.0%2026-07-06 20:30
Smarkets1.73I 57.80% NM 52.60%1.92I 52.08% NM 47.40%9.9%2026-07-06 17:45