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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Minnesota Twins v Cleveland Guardians

Inicio: 2026-09-13 18:11 UTC

Final: Minnesota Twins 2–9 Cleveland Guardians

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Minnesota Twins (Local)

Predicción 53.49%1.87momio equitativo
EV -2.11%
Ventaja -1.15%
Kelly -2.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.97%53.60%53.49%55.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.781.781.8358.82%56.05%56.18%54.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cleveland Guardians (Visitante)

Predicción 46.51%2.15momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.662%
Kelly -1.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.74%46.40%46.51%48.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.052.052.1251.28%48.76%48.78%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Minnesota Twins (Local): 53.49%; Cleveland Guardians (Visitante): 46.51%. Para Cleveland Guardians (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.15. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.12, con un valor esperado de -1.40%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -1.40%E -0.662%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-13 15:30
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -1.87%E -0.886%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-13 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV -1.87%E -0.886%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-13 16:01
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 17:59
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 15:57
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-13 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 17:50
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 17:50
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-13 17:49
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.92%E -4.00%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -2.11%E -1.15%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -7.92%E -4.00%K -8.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:50
BetAnything🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.64%E -1.45%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-13 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.18%E -1.76%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -4.19%E -2.04%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-13 16:15
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 15:25
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 13:55
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 15:25
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 15:10
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 13:55
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.71%E -2.06%K -4.64%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:20
Bovada🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.51%EV -4.25%E -2.37%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.49%EV -4.19%E -2.04%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-13 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.25%E -2.37%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -5.12%E -2.51%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 15:25
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -4.25%E -2.37%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -5.59%E -2.75%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:15
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 17:15
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 17:20
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 17:20
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.59%E -2.75%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.78%E -2.69%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.59%E -2.75%K -5.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 16:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-13 13:25
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-13 11:20
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-13 15:25
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -3.73%E -1.80%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 15:25
betfred_uk🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 15:30
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.32%E -3.00%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.85%E -3.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -4.19%E -2.04%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 17:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.85%E -3.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 17:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.85%E -3.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 13:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.85%E -3.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 16:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -5.85%E -3.33%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.26%E -1.57%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 18:00
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 13:55
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:59
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.39%E -3.65%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:58
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.92%E -3.98%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.12%E -2.51%K -4.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.92%E -3.98%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.12%E -2.51%K -4.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 17:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -7.46%E -4.31%K -10.22%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -7.45%E -3.74%K -7.53%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 17:44
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.53%E -4.99%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -6.99%E -3.49%K -6.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.06%E -5.33%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.33%E -1.11%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 16:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.62%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.38%0.3%2026-09-13 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-09-13 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-09-13 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-09-13 17:40
Matchbook◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-09-13 17:25
ProphetX◎1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87%0.6%2026-09-13 17:40
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-09-13 15:35
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-09-13 14:15
Novig◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-09-13 17:50
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.06%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.94%2.4%2026-09-13 17:20