La escuela de los momios

Miami Marlins v Washington Nationals

Inicio: 2026-05-08 23:11 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 2–3 Washington Nationals

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 55.66%1.80momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.841%
Kelly -1.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.67%55.69%55.70%57.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.671.721.711.7759.88%58.25%58.48%56.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 44.34%2.26momio equitativo
EV +1.99%
Ventaja +0.866%
Kelly +1.53%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.64%44.31%44.30%45.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.052.162.152.3048.78%46.31%46.51%43.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Everygame1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV +1.99%E +0.866%K +1.53%G +0.031%2.0%2026-05-08 22:24
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11%EV +0.661%E +0.291%K +0.521%G +0.003%2.2%2026-05-08 22:59
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.226%E -0.100%K -0.180%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-08 22:58
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.56%E -0.701%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-08 22:59
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.56%E -0.701%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-08 22:59
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.56%E -0.701%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-08 21:39
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 15:15
ReBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 21:44
Hard Rock Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 17:19
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 20:49
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 20:50
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 21:44
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-08 22:52
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 21:19
Dabble (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.50%E -3.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 22:49
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.05%E -4.22%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 22:34
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -1.49%E -0.841%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -2.89%E -1.32%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-08 14:54
MyBookie.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%EV -2.89%E -1.32%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-08 21:44
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.33%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-08 20:32
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.33%E -1.53%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:50
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -3.77%E -1.74%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 19:44
Svenska Spel1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV -2.05%E -1.16%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-08 22:34
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-08 21:39
Betsson1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 21:44
NordicBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -4.22%E -1.95%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-08 21:49
theScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-08 14:59
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 21:44
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:34
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:34
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:34
Coolbet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 20:35
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 19:49
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 20:34
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 21:44
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 20:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 20:50
Unibet (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.94%E -3.52%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-08 22:59
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.05%E -4.22%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.66%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 21:39
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.60%E -1.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 23:09
Unibet (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.60%E -1.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 23:09
Unibet (NL)1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -2.60%E -1.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-08 23:09
SportsBet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.10%E -2.38%K -4.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-08 21:39
LeoVegas1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
Casumo1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
Unibet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
Bally Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
betPARX1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.16%E -1.82%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 23:09
BetRivers1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 22:34
LiveScore Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 22:34
Virgin Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 22:34
TABtouch1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -3.72%E -2.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 22:34
Marathon Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.27%E -2.48%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.99%E -2.83%K -5.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 14:50
Fliff1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 22:44
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.83%E -2.82%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 23:09
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 15:09
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.50%E -3.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.88%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 19:49
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.09%E -4.44%K -8.66%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-08 22:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14%-0.1%2026-05-08 22:50
Novig1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%0.3%2026-05-08 23:05
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-05-08 23:04
ProphetX1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-05-08 23:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-05-08 23:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-05-08 22:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.1%2026-05-08 22:50
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-05-08 16:00
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-05-08 16:00
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%2.4%2026-05-08 23:04