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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres

Inicio: 2026-07-26 17:41 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 3–5 San Diego Padres

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 52.17%1.92momio equitativo
EV -0.354%
Ventaja -0.185%
Kelly -0.389%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%52.20%52.16%53.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.721.831.831.9158.14%54.62%54.64%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Diego Padres (Visitante)

Predicción 47.83%2.09momio equitativo
EV -0.994%
Ventaja -0.480%
Kelly -0.929%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.48%47.80%47.84%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.901.992.002.0752.63%50.27%50.00%48.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Miami Marlins (Local): 52.17%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 47.83%. Para Miami Marlins (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.92. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.91, con un valor esperado de -0.354%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -0.354%E -0.185%K -0.389%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-26 17:38
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.90%EV -0.354%E -0.185%K -0.389%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.10%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-26 17:40
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%EV -0.875%E -0.461%K -0.973%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%EV -3.39%E -1.68%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-26 17:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -0.875%E -0.461%K -0.973%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -3.86%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-26 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -0.875%E -0.461%K -0.973%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -3.86%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-26 17:40
GTbets🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -0.875%E -0.461%K -0.973%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -3.86%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-26 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -0.875%E -0.461%K -0.973%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -9.12%E -4.80%K -10.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 17:40
BetUS🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -1.40%E -0.739%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -3.39%E -1.68%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-26 17:39
ReBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 17:39
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -6.25%E -3.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-26 17:40
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 17:35
Fliff🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 17:35
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 17:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.44%E -1.31%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 17:40
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -2.96%E -1.59%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -0.994%E -0.480%K -0.929%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-26 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -2.43%E -1.19%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-26 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:35
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:35
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:30
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.78%E -2.93%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 17:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.25%E -3.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:35
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.48%E -1.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -6.25%E -3.19%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.39%E -1.68%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.39%E -1.68%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-26 17:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:30
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 17:35
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:30
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:31
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:30
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.30%E -2.68%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-26 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 17:38
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.53%E -2.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.65%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-26 17:25
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.05%E -2.77%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.05%E -2.77%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-26 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.05%E -2.77%K -6.16%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.82%E -2.42%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 17:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -5.57%E -3.08%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -1.95%E -0.951%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-26 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.95%E -0.951%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 17:40
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.95%E -0.951%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 15:20
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.95%E -0.951%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -3.86%E -1.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 16:55
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 17:40
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 17:30
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-26 17:05
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.09%E -3.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.65%E -4.53%K -9.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 17:39
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -7.14%E -4.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -1.95%E -0.951%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -7.14%E -4.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -7.14%E -4.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -6.73%E -3.45%K -7.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -7.14%E -4.01%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -7.21%E -3.72%K -7.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-26 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.66%E -4.33%K -9.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 15:20
BetRivers🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -7.66%E -4.33%K -9.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%EV -7.69%E -3.98%K -8.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 17:40
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.70%E -4.97%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 17:29
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.70%E -4.97%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.34%E -2.17%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 17:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%EV -10.27%E -5.97%K -14.26%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%EV -8.17%E -4.25%K -8.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 17:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.75%2.07I 48.31%NM 48.25%0.1%2026-07-26 17:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-07-26 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-07-26 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61%0.8%2026-07-26 17:40
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-26 17:10
Polymarket◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-26 17:30
ProphetX◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-26 17:40
Novig◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98%1.2%2026-07-26 17:35
Smarkets◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%2.4%2026-07-26 17:40
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 51.44%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.56%4.5%2026-07-26 17:40