Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins v Philadelphia Phillies

Início: 2026-07-28 22:41 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 1–0 Philadelphia Phillies

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Miami Marlins (Local)

Previsão 55.26%1.81odd justa
EV -0.532%
Vantagem -0.295%
Kelly -0.665%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
53.05%55.21%55.26%56.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.681.731.741.8059.52%57.64%57.47%55.56%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Previsão 44.74%2.24odd justa
EV +1.11%
Vantagem +0.492%
Kelly +0.883%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.50%44.79%44.74%46.95%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.002.132.122.2650.00%46.97%47.17%44.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Miami Marlins (Local): 55.26%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante): 44.74%. Para Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.24. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.26, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.11%.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%EV +1.11%E +0.492%K +0.883%G +0.010%1.7%2026-07-28 22:39
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%EV +0.217%E +0.097%K +0.175%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-28 22:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -0.230%E -0.103%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-28 22:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -0.230%E -0.103%K -0.187%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-28 22:40
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -2.74%E -1.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -1.13%E -0.509%K -0.930%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-28 22:05
BetUS🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.81%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.19%EV -1.13%E -0.509%K -0.930%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-28 22:39
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -1.57%E -0.715%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-28 22:19
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -0.532%E -0.295%K -0.665%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -3.36%E -1.56%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-28 19:39
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -3.36%E -1.56%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-28 21:15
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.67%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.33%EV -3.36%E -1.56%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-28 22:39
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -2.74%E -1.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-28 21:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -2.74%E -1.56%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-28 21:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-28 22:35
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-28 19:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 21:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 22:38
ReBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 22:19
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 21:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 22:34
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-28 21:44
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-28 22:19
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 22:19
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -3.81%E -1.77%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 22:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.26%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-28 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.26%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-28 21:29
DraftKings🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.26%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-28 22:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.26%E -1.99%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-28 22:39
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -4.70%E -2.21%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 21:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:29
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:29
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:30
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:29
Bally Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-28 21:29
Bet Right🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 22:20
Coolbet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-28 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 21:44
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 20:03
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 20:04
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.15%E -2.43%K -4.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-28 21:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 22:19
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 22:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 21:15
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 20:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 20:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 20:29
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 21:30
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 21:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-28 21:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-28 22:19
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.95%E -2.88%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-28 20:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.51%E -3.22%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-28 22:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.06%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-28 22:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.06%E -3.56%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.05%E -2.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-28 22:40
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-28 22:29
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.29%E -1.88%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-28 22:28
Betway🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.85%E -2.21%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-28 22:39
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.40%E -2.54%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 20:15
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -7.16%E -4.26%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -8.28%E -4.04%K -7.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-28 21:29
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -2.19%E -1.24%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -10.52%E -5.26%K -10.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-28 22:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-28 22:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-28 22:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%0.5%2026-07-28 22:39
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-07-28 22:39
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.17%0.6%2026-07-28 22:39
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-28 21:24
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-07-28 22:30
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.2%2026-07-28 22:40
Matchbook◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-07-28 22:40
BetOpenly◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.91%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.09%1.7%2026-07-28 22:39