Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers v Cincinnati Reds

Inicio: 2026-09-09 02:11 UTC

Final: Los Angeles Dodgers 3–2 Cincinnati Reds

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Predicción 72.38%1.38momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -1.69%
Kelly -6.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.96%72.42%72.34%73.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.271.321.321.3578.74%76.04%75.76%74.07%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Predicción 27.62%3.62momio equitativo
EV +1.08%
Ventaja +0.295%
Kelly +0.405%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.23%27.58%27.66%29.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.463.453.6630.77%28.89%28.99%27.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 72.38%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 27.62%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.62. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.66, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.08%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
theScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.49%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.51%EV +1.08%E +0.295%K +0.405%G +0.004%3.1%2026-09-08 17:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%EV +0.802%E +0.220%K +0.303%G +0.002%2.6%2026-09-09 01:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71%EV +0.802%E +0.220%K +0.303%G +0.002%2.6%2026-09-09 01:44
ReBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-08 23:13
FanDuel🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 22:44
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-09 01:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-08 22:05
Fliff🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:44
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.35%E -5.74%K -26.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -0.579%E -0.161%K -0.223%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 22:05
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 72.76%EV -3.01%E -2.24%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.24%EV -1.13%E -0.316%K -0.439%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-09 02:05
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -1.41%E -0.394%K -0.548%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 22:43
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.51%EV -2.28%E -1.69%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.49%EV -1.68%E -0.473%K -0.658%G +0.000%2.2%2026-09-09 01:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -1.96%E -0.552%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 21:10
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -1.96%E -0.552%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-09 01:59
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -1.96%E -0.552%K -0.769%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-09 02:04
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -1.96%E -0.552%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 01:59
BetUS🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.69%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.31%EV -2.24%E -0.632%K -0.880%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 01:45
GTbets🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 01:44
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-09 01:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 22:05
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-08 22:05
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 01:59
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 01:19
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.56%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.44%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-09 02:04
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 01:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 01:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 01:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 01:14
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:15
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:15
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:14
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:15
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-09 01:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -4.72%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 02:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -3.01%E -2.24%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-09 02:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-08 22:20
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 02:00
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 02:00
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 02:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-09 02:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.18%E -3.95%K -16.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 02:08
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 22:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 22:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 22:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 02:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 01:15
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.10%E -1.79%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 23:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.91%EV -4.45%E -3.37%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.09%EV -6.65%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-09 01:30
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 01:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -7.48%E -2.23%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 01:45
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -8.31%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 22:04
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -8.31%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 22:05
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 02:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.63%E -5.14%K -22.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 02:08
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -8.07%E -6.36%K -29.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -8.86%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 01:15
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.73%E -2.80%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 02:09
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 02:00
betano_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -5.90%E -4.54%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 01:58
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 01:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-09-09 02:00
Polymarket◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-09-09 01:40
Novig◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-09-09 02:10
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-09-09 02:09
BetOpenly◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.32%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%1.2%2026-09-09 02:09
ProphetX◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%1.7%2026-09-09 02:09
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.15%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-09-09 02:09