Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox

2026-08-02 23:21 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Local)

Predicción 59.24%1.69momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.642%
Kelly -1.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.14%59.33%59.27%60.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.511.601.601.6766.23%62.39%62.50%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Boston Red Sox (Visitante)

Predicción 40.76%2.45momio equitativo
EV -1.36%
Ventaja -0.560%
Kelly -0.955%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.24%40.67%40.73%41.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.362.372.4244.44%42.42%42.28%41.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Los Angeles Dodgers (Local): 59.24%; Boston Red Sox (Visitante): 40.76%. Para Los Angeles Dodgers (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.69. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.67, con un valor esperado de -1.07%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%EV -1.07%E -0.642%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-01 22:35
1xBet1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%EV -1.07%E -0.642%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-02 01:25
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -1.36%E -0.560%K -0.955%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 18:45
GTbets1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -1.36%E -0.560%K -0.955%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-01 23:25
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 23:25
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-01 23:24
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-02 01:10
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.26%E -1.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-02 01:00
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.44%E -2.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-02 00:15
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.44%E -2.11%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:24
BetAnything1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-02 01:20
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.80%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 01:04
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 23:23
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 20:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 00:55
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 00:54
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.03%E -2.49%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 00:19
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.39%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 21:04
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:59
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:55
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 01:00
Bet Right1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.62%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 00:35
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.63%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -5.84%E -2.53%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:15
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 01:29
Unibet (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 01:30
Unibet (NL)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 01:30
Svenska Spel1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-02 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.39%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:49
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -3.39%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 00:50
888sport1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 00:34
888sport (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 00:35
Mr Green (SE)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.21%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 00:35
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.02%E -2.16%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:00
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.08%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.92%EV -5.84%E -2.53%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 00:58
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 00:34
Winamax (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.22%E -3.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 00:34
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -5.43%E -2.34%K -4.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 18:44
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.25%E -2.72%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-02 00:59
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
Casumo1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 01:30
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.00%E -4.46%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 18:44
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-02 01:30
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 00:59
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.59%E -4.86%K -13.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.29%E -3.68%K -6.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 01:00
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.18%E -5.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.17%E -0.905%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 00:59
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 60.57%EV -10.55%E -6.99%K -20.69%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -5.43%E -2.34%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 01:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-01 18:50
Novig1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-02 02:30
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-08-01 19:45
ProphetX1.64I 60.98%NM 59.61%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.39%2.3%2026-08-02 02:15
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%9.6%2026-08-02 01:00