L’École des cotes

Kansas City Royals v Philadelphia Phillies

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-05 19:01 UTC

Score final : Kansas City Royals 5–2 Philadelphia Phillies

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prévision 45.21%2.21cote équitable
EV +0.809%
Avantage +0.363%
Kelly +0.658%
Croissance +0.005%

avec la cote maximale 2.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.15%45.29%45.18%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.002.112.132.23100.00%47.32%46.84%44.84%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Philadelphia Phillies (Visiteur)

Prévision 54.79%1.83cote équitable
EV -1.37%
Avantage -0.761%
Kelly -1.71%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
50.00%54.71%54.82%56.85%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.721.731.80100.00%58.18%57.80%55.56%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV +0.809%E +0.363%K +0.658%G +0.005%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -5.75%E -3.35%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-05 17:15
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-05 18:50
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 17:15
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 17:15
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Fliff2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.49%E -5.09%K -12.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:25
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-05 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:14
Bally Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:59
Everygame2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 17:25
BetAnything2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:14
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:14
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:15
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:15
1xBet2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -1.37%E -0.761%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 16:39
Pinnacle2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-05 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 18:25
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 18:20
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 21:25
ReBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 16:25
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 17:23
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 12:09
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 23:54
MyBookie.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 16:50
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -9.04%E -5.45%K -13.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:14
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -3.71%E -1.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 18:04
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 16:40
Bet Right2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:30
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:45
DraftKings2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 19:00
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.01%E -1.70%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:24
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Dabble (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 05:00
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 17:25
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 12:09
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:24
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 16:45
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.97%E -2.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 18:59
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -5.97%E -2.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 16:40
Unibet (UK)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -6.42%E -3.10%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -1.37%E -0.761%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 19:00
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 18:59
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-05 16:40
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.75%E -3.35%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.40%E -4.38%K -10.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 18:33
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -9.59%E -4.79%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.59%E -4.79%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 18:54
Betsson1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -54.79%E -54.79%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -45.21%E -45.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%100.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
ProphetX2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16%0.0%2026-07-05 19:00
BetOpenly2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-07-05 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-07-05 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-07-05 17:30
Novig2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Polymarket2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%2.8%2026-07-05 19:00