La escuela de los momios

Kansas City Royals v Philadelphia Phillies

Inicio: 2026-07-05 19:01 UTC

Final: Kansas City Royals 5–2 Philadelphia Phillies

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Predicción 45.21%2.21momio equitativo
EV +0.809%
Ventaja +0.363%
Kelly +0.658%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%45.29%45.18%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.002.112.132.23100.00%47.32%46.84%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Philadelphia Phillies (Visitante)

Predicción 54.79%1.83momio equitativo
EV -1.37%
Ventaja -0.761%
Kelly -1.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%54.71%54.82%56.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.001.721.731.80100.00%58.18%57.80%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV +0.809%E +0.363%K +0.658%G +0.005%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -5.75%E -3.35%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-05 17:15
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-05 18:50
Unibet (NL)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 17:15
Unibet (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 17:15
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 18:55
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Fliff2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.547%E -0.249%K -0.456%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.49%E -5.09%K -12.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-05 16:25
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-05 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
Casumo2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
betPARX2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:14
Bally Bet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 17:15
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -1.45%E -0.666%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 18:59
Everygame2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 17:25
BetAnything2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-05 18:55
Virgin Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:14
BetRivers2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:14
LiveScore Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:15
TABtouch2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -1.90%E -0.877%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 17:15
1xBet2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55%EV -1.37%E -0.761%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-05 16:39
Pinnacle2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -1.92%E -1.07%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-05 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 18:25
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -2.36%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -2.47%E -1.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-05 18:20
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-04 21:25
ReBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 16:25
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 17:23
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 12:09
Hard Rock Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.81%E -1.31%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 23:54
MyBookie.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 16:50
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -3.26%E -1.52%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -9.04%E -5.45%K -13.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 17:14
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -3.71%E -1.74%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-05 18:04
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-05 16:40
Bet Right2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:30
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-05 17:45
DraftKings2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -4.16%E -1.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -7.95%E -4.73%K -11.68%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 19:00
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.01%E -1.70%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:24
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 17:25
Dabble (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-05 05:00
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 17:25
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 17:25
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 12:09
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 16:24
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.30%E -3.69%K -8.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.07%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.85%E -4.03%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 16:45
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.97%E -2.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-05 18:59
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -5.97%E -2.87%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-05 16:40
Unibet (UK)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -6.42%E -3.10%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -1.37%E -0.761%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-05 19:00
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.66%E -2.68%K -6.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 18:59
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.21%E -3.01%K -7.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-05 16:40
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.75%E -3.35%K -7.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -7.33%E -3.57%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -7.40%E -4.38%K -10.72%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-05 18:33
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -9.59%E -4.79%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -3.56%E -2.02%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.59%E -4.79%K -9.59%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.11%E -2.35%K -5.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 18:54
Betsson1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -54.79%E -54.79%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -45.21%E -45.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%100.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16%0.0%2026-07-05 19:00
BetOpenly2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-07-05 18:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-07-05 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-07-05 19:00
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-07-05 17:30
Novig2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Polymarket2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%1.9%2026-07-05 19:00
Smarkets2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%2.0%2026-07-05 19:00
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96%2.8%2026-07-05 19:00