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Kansas City Royals v Cleveland Guardians
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas City Royals (Local)
Prediction 55.60%1.80fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.81%55.47%55.70%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.721.711.7760.61%58.27%58.48%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cleveland Guardians (Visit)
Prediction 44.40%2.25fair odd
EV +0.338%
Edge +0.149%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.50%44.53%44.30%46.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.152.152.2651.02%46.60%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Royals (Local): 55.60%; Cleveland Guardians (Visit): 44.40%. For Cleveland Guardians (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.338%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50%EV +0.338%E +0.149%K +0.268%G +0.001% | 1.7% | 2026-05-06 23:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.106%E -0.047%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-06 23:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -0.106%E -0.047%K -0.085%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-06 21:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.44%E -0.648%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.44%E -0.648%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -1.44%E -0.648%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-06 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.33%E -1.06%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 21:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.33%E -1.06%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.33%E -1.06%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.33%E -1.06%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 20:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.33%E -1.06%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -1.58%E -0.894%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -2.77%E -1.26%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 12:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.21%E -1.47%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 20:42 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%EV -2.70%E -1.54%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.64%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -6.03%E -3.57%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -3.66%E -1.69%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 23:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24%EV -2.70%E -1.54%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-05 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.10%E -1.90%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -2.70%E -1.54%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-06 13:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 20:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 21:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 23:38 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 21:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 21:11 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 23:38 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 23:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 20:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 22:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 20:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.03%E -3.57%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.55%E -2.11%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -5.43%E -2.55%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 11:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -2.70%E -1.54%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 21:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 19:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.36%E -2.54%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 19:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -4.92%E -2.88%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.65%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.59%E -3.92%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -5.88%E -2.77%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.70%E -1.54%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.77%E -3.22%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.77%E -3.22%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 23:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.77%E -3.22%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 03:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.14%E -4.28%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.77%E -3.22%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.15%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.85%EV -7.21%E -3.45%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.76%EV -8.26%E -5.00%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.24%EV -7.65%E -3.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -2.14%E -1.22%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -8.99%E -4.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.25%E -1.87%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.99%E -4.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 23:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.81%E -2.20%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -8.99%E -4.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-06 21:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.99%E -4.38%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-06 23:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.85%EV -6.59%E -3.92%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.15%EV -12.98%E -6.62%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.59% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.41% | -0.7% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.56% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.44% | 0.0% | 2026-05-06 23:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42% | 0.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36% | 1.5% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.89% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.11% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.50% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.50% | 3.6% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 23:40 |