The School of Odds
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Cleveland Guardians v Tampa Bay Rays

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 21:08 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 1–3 Tampa Bay Rays

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 46.57%2.15fair odd
EV +0.116%
Edge +0.054%
Kelly +0.100%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.74%46.69%46.73%48.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.052.072.1554.35%48.82%48.31%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visit)

Prediction 53.43%1.87fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.59%53.31%53.27%55.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.781.771.8561.73%56.23%56.34%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 46.57%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visit): 53.43%. For Cleveland Guardians (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.148. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.150, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.116%.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV +0.116%E +0.054%K +0.100%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 12:00
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV +0.116%E +0.054%K +0.100%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 18:37
Caesars🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.50%EV -1.28%E -0.604%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.50%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-18 21:03
theScore Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -1.75%E -0.828%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 18:24
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%EV -1.68%E -0.913%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.0%2026-10-18 20:54
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 13:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 20:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:05
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:03
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 13:24
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 13:30
Fliff🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.02%E -4.04%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 21:04
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.02%E -4.04%K -9.49%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 20:04
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.56%E -4.37%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 06:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -2.21%E -1.05%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -9.16%E -5.39%K -13.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 15:39
BetUS🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -3.14%E -1.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -1.15%E -0.619%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 21:00
DraftKings🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.80%EV -3.14%E -1.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.20%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-18 21:04
FanDuel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%EV -3.14%E -1.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%EV -2.75%E -1.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-18 21:04
Bet Right🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.14%E -1.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 19:24
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.14%E -1.51%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 19:24
GTbets🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -1.15%E -0.619%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-18 20:59
MyBookie.ag🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.35%E -2.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 20:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 21:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 20:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -3.61%E -1.74%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 20:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -4.08%E -1.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -1.15%E -0.619%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-18 21:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -4.08%E -1.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -1.15%E -0.619%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-18 21:05
BetAnything🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -4.08%E -1.98%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-18 20:59
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 20:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 20:59
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 21:04
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.42%E -3.06%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.96%E -3.38%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 19:24
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.54%E -2.22%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.56%E -4.37%K -10.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 13:39
Bovada🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -5.01%E -2.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.28%E -1.81%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 21:04
SportsBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.01%E -2.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.89%E -2.75%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 21:04
NordicBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -5.47%E -2.70%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.89%E -2.75%K -6.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 21:04
Dabble (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 20:54
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 20:54
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.35%E -2.43%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 21:04
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -5.94%E -2.94%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.59%EV -10.23%E -6.09%K -15.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 20:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -1.15%E -0.619%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 21:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-18 21:04
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.87%E -3.43%K -6.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 20:59
ReBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -7.80%E -3.94%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -2.75%E -1.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 21:00
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -2.21%E -1.21%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 20:59
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 21:04
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 20:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 21:03
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 20:49
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.20%E -4.72%K -9.68%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.82%E -2.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-18 21:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -9.66%E -4.98%K -10.28%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -4.89%E -2.75%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-18 21:03
picklebet_au🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -11.53%E -6.07%K -12.81%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.49%E -3.71%K -8.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 21:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.31%EV -14.32%E -7.78%K -17.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.69%EV -8.09%E -4.70%K -11.24%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-18 21:03
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.82%EV -14.32%E -7.78%K -17.05%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.18%EV -13.44%E -8.29%K -21.67%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-18 20:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%0.4%2026-10-18 21:04
Novig◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75%1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25%0.4%2026-10-18 20:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%0.8%2026-10-18 21:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%0.8%2026-10-18 21:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%0.8%2026-10-18 21:04
Polymarket◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-10-18 18:09
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.53%1.3%2026-10-18 21:05
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-10-18 21:04
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.9%2026-10-18 20:45
BetOpenly◎2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%3.4%2026-10-18 21:04