The School of Odds

Cleveland Guardians v Pittsburgh Pirates

2026-07-17 23:11 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 53.09%1.88fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.09%53.04%53.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.791.8659%56%56%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Pittsburgh Pirates (Visit)

Prediction 46.91%2.13fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.05%46.91%46.96%47.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.922.012.022.0752%50%50%48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -1.25%E -0.670%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -2.90%E -1.40%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-16 01:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.84%E -1.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 02:09
FanDuel1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.37%E -1.64%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 01:10
MyBookie.ag1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%EV -3.90%E -2.16%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.77%EV -3.37%E -1.64%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-16 01:15
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -4.31%E -2.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-16 01:25
PlayUp1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 01:45
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 01:24
Marathon Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -5.72%E -2.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 05:10
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:10
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 02:29
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:25
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-16 01:50
Tipico (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.43%E -2.46%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -7.59%E -3.85%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-16 07:10
Betsson1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 01:45
NordicBet1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-16 01:45
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.49%E -3.09%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.31%E -2.11%K -4.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 01:15
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.49%E -3.09%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-16 01:15
SportsBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 01:10
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.25%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-16 01:14
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 01:25
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 01:25
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.84%E -1.87%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-16 01:24
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -7.12%E -3.60%K -7.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-16 06:35
ReBet1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.19%E -3.09%K -6.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 01:15
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -9.94%E -5.18%K -10.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-16 01:15
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.96%EV -9.94%E -5.18%K -10.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-16 01:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%2.9%2026-07-16 07:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%2.9%2026-07-16 06:55
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67%3.0%2026-07-16 07:00
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%4.0%2026-07-16 07:00
Smarkets1.72I 58.14%NM 53.01%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.99%9.7%2026-07-16 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-07-16 07:35