Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals

Inicio: 2026-08-29 20:11 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 3–8 Kansas City Royals

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 59.89%1.67momio equitativo
EV -1.18%
Ventaja -0.714%
Kelly -1.81%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.67%59.91%59.95%60.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.541.601.601.6564.94%62.59%62.50%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kansas City Royals (Visitante)

Predicción 40.11%2.49momio equitativo
EV +0.672%
Ventaja +0.268%
Kelly +0.445%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.23%40.09%40.05%41.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.382.382.5143.86%42.10%42.02%39.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 59.89%; Kansas City Royals (Visitante): 40.11%. Para Kansas City Royals (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.49. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.51, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.672%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.77%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 39.23%EV +0.672%E +0.268%K +0.445%G +0.003%1.6%2026-08-29 19:54
GTbets🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.64%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.36%EV -0.532%E -0.214%K -0.359%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-29 18:25
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.39%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.61%EV -0.933%E -0.378%K -0.635%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-29 19:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -0.933%E -0.378%K -0.635%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%EV -0.933%E -0.378%K -0.635%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -1.33%E -0.542%K -0.914%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 16:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -1.18%E -0.714%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV -1.73%E -0.708%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-29 16:45
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -1.73%E -0.708%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-29 16:54
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%EV -2.14%E -0.875%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-29 19:59
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.71%EV -1.78%E -1.08%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.29%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-29 19:35
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-29 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-29 20:00
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 20:10
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%EV -3.34%E -1.39%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 20:08
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-29 17:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 20:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 16:50
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 16:50
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 16:50
BetMGM🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 16:50
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.74%E -1.56%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -4.14%E -1.73%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-29 19:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 19:15
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 19:15
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 18:09
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:15
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:15
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:14
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 19:14
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.54%E -1.91%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -5.34%E -2.26%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 19:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -2.38%E -1.46%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 16:50
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-29 16:50
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 17:10
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 17:10
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 20:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -4.77%E -3.00%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 17:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 20:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 17:20
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.75%E -2.44%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 20:09
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.55%E -2.81%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 16:50
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.55%E -2.81%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -6.55%E -2.81%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -5.37%E -3.40%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -6.55%E -2.81%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 19:15
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -3.57%E -2.22%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.95%E -3.00%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.98%E -1.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 15:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.17%E -2.61%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 20:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 17:45
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.97%E -3.80%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 20:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 20:05
Bet Victor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 19:59
betano_uk🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 19:58
ReBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.17%E -4.62%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.75%E -3.37%K -5.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 20:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.48%EV -6.57%E -4.21%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.52%EV -8.15%E -3.56%K -6.32%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 20:04
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -7.77%E -5.04%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -8.55%E -3.75%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 19:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-08-29 20:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%0.6%2026-08-29 20:10
Novig◎1.63I 61.35%NM 60.82%2.53I 39.53%NM 39.18%0.9%2026-08-29 20:10
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-08-29 20:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-08-29 20:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-08-29 20:05
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-08-29 16:45
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%1.3%2026-08-29 20:10
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-08-29 20:10
BetOpenly◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%2.3%2026-08-29 20:09