Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals

2026-08-19 22:40 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 56.36%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.93%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -2.61%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.27%56.49%56.30%57.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.691.681.7462.11%59.21%59.52%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante)

Predicción 43.64%2.29momio equitativo
EV -0.066%
Ventaja -0.029%
Kelly -0.051%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.61%43.51%43.70%44.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.202.202.2947.62%45.44%45.45%43.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 56.36%; St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante): 43.64%. Para St. Louis Cardinals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.292. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.290, con un valor esperado de -0.066%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-19 01:15
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-19 01:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-19 01:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -3.12%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 01:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -3.12%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 01:15
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -3.12%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 01:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -5.74%E -2.66%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-19 01:35
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.93%E -1.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-19 00:50
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.64%EV -2.50%E -1.44%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.36%EV -1.37%E -0.608%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-19 01:20
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.06%E -1.78%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 01:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.06%E -1.78%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 01:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.62%E -2.12%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 01:15
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.62%E -2.12%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 01:20
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.62%E -2.12%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 01:19
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.39%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.61%EV -0.066%E -0.029%K -0.051%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-19 01:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 01:40
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-19 01:40
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.30%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.70%EV -4.43%E -2.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-19 01:14
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.87%E -2.23%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 19:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.19%E -2.46%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.87%E -2.23%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-19 01:30
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.75%E -2.81%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-19 01:15
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.75%E -2.81%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.87%E -2.23%K -4.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-19 01:40
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.75%E -2.81%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-19 01:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:45
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.81%E -0.805%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-18 22:45
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -2.25%E -1.00%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-18 18:35
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-18 19:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -4.43%E -2.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-19 01:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 01:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.31%E -3.16%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 01:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -2.68%E -1.20%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-18 22:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 01:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 01:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-19 01:20
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 01:15
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.88%E -3.52%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 01:15
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.44%E -3.88%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-18 22:45
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.01%E -4.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.01%E -4.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 18:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.01%E -4.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.01%E -4.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.99%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-18 22:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.57%E -4.62%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 01:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -7.57%E -4.62%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 01:25
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -9.26%E -5.75%K -15.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.18%E -2.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-18 22:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 56.82%2.29I 43.67%NM 43.18%1.1%2026-08-19 01:40
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-19 01:20
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-19 01:30
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.67%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.33%1.4%2026-08-19 02:00
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%6.9%2026-08-19 01:35
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%7.0%2026-08-19 02:05

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