Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Milwaukee Brewers

Inicio: 2026-09-04 22:11 UTC

Final: Cincinnati Reds 7–10 Milwaukee Brewers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

66 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 40.95%2.44momio equitativo
EV -0.498%
Ventaja -0.205%
Kelly -0.349%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.00%41.00%40.95%43.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.332.332.4345.45%42.97%42.92%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante)

Predicción 59.05%1.69momio equitativo
EV +0.390%
Ventaja +0.229%
Kelly +0.557%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.85%59.00%59.05%60.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.621.621.7064.10%61.68%61.73%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 40.95%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante): 59.05%. Para Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.69. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 1.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.390%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (66 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -5.41%E -2.34%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV +0.390%E +0.229%K +0.557%G +0.002%2.1%2026-09-04 14:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.92%E -4.51%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.38%E -0.827%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 13:55
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV -2.55%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%EV -1.97%E -1.19%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Caesars🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.44%EV -0.498%E -0.205%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.56%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.8%2026-09-04 14:34
GTbets🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.64%EV -1.32%E -0.547%K -0.934%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.36%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-04 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -2.14%E -0.894%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -2.14%E -0.894%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-04 14:10
Everygame🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.55%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 14:14
BetUS🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -2.96%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-04 14:10
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -3.36%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:10
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -8.28%E -3.70%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -2.56%E -1.55%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -5.00%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 00:04
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.15%E -1.92%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 00:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.74%E -2.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 09:54
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.74%E -2.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 10:05
theScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -0.498%E -0.205%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-04 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.55%E -1.07%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-03 19:25
FanDuel🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.36%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 00:04
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:08
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
Bally Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 11:30
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 18:45
ReBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 12:00
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:10
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.33%E -2.68%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 11:30
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.96%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 00:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.96%E -1.25%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 00:04
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -3.36%E -1.43%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 11:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 14:09
Bet Right🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -4.18%E -1.79%K -3.12%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-04 11:59
SportsBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 11:59
NordicBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:20
Betsson🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 14:24
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.59%E -1.97%K -3.45%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 12:00
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.00%E -2.16%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.92%E -3.06%K -8.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 14:25
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:58
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:29
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 11:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.82%E -2.53%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%EV -6.23%E -2.72%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.52%E -3.45%K -9.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 14:09
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.77%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.11%E -3.84%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.11%E -3.84%K -10.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:09
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.87%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.88%E -5.05%K -14.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly◎2.45I 40.82%NM 40.82%1.69I 59.17%NM 59.18%-0.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Novig◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
ProphetX◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-09-04 14:35
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-09-04 10:55
Polymarket◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-09-03 19:45
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 40.83%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.17%1.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35