Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Miami Marlins

Início: 2026-08-15 22:41 UTC

Final: Cincinnati Reds 4–8 Miami Marlins

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

63 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Previsão 50.37%1.99odd justa
EV -1.78%
Vantagem -0.914%
Kelly -1.88%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.60%50.51%50.39%52.58%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.771.881.891.9556.50%53.07%52.91%51.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Previsão 49.63%2.01odd justa
EV +1.25%
Vantagem +0.612%
Kelly +1.20%
Crescimento +0.015%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
47.42%49.49%49.61%50.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.851.931.922.0454.05%51.71%52.08%49.02%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 50.37%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 49.63%. Para Miami Marlins (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.01. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.04, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.25%.

Odds das casas de apostas (63 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.58%EV -7.32%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.42%EV +1.25%E +0.612%K +1.20%G +0.015%3.4%2026-08-15 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV +0.256%E +0.127%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.0%2026-08-15 22:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV +0.256%E +0.127%K +0.251%G +0.001%3.0%2026-08-15 22:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.736%E -0.368%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 22:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -0.736%E -0.368%K -0.736%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-15 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -1.73%E -0.873%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-15 13:54
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.51%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.49%EV -1.73%E -0.873%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-15 22:00
theScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97%EV -1.73%E -0.873%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-15 12:14
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26%EV -1.78%E -0.914%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-15 22:04
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.51%EV -2.79%E -1.45%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.49%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 20:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:29
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:29
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:29
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:30
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -2.72%E -1.39%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -2.72%E -1.39%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:34
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -2.72%E -1.39%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:35
BetUS🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 50.26%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.74%EV -2.72%E -1.39%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:34
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -7.83%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -2.72%E -1.39%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.78%E -0.914%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:54
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -1.78%E -0.914%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.00%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-15 13:03
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -8.83%E -4.88%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 22:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.86%EV -8.83%E -4.88%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 22:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -3.71%E -1.91%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 20:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.26%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.74%EV -4.21%E -2.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 21:24
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -4.21%E -2.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 21:59
TAB🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.29%E -1.72%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 22:05
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 16:15
Dabble (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 22:39
Coolbet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 13:34
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.31%E -2.82%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 22:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.79%EV -6.32%E -3.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.21%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 08:43
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 16:15
Fliff🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 22:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:34
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:33
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.80%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 05:39
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 22:39
SportsBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 13:54
Betsson🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 21:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.26%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.74%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 21:59
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 22:39
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 13:04
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.90%EV -10.85%E -6.13%K -14.09%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.10%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 22:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 07:14
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 13:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 13:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 22:29
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 22:30
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 22:28
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -6.82%E -3.69%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 22:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -7.32%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -4.30%E -2.26%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -7.19%E -3.84%K -8.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 21:39
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.19%E -3.84%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 20:12
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.40%EV -7.32%E -3.98%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%EV -7.19%E -3.84%K -8.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 22:12
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -5.31%E -2.82%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 22:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
BetOpenly◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.50%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.50%0.0%2026-08-15 22:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%0.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%0.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.13%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.87%0.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-15 01:10
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-15 05:20
Novig◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-08-15 22:40
Matchbook◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87%1.3%2026-08-15 22:40
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.26%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%2.0%2026-08-15 22:40
ProphetX◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23%2.1%2026-08-15 22:40