Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds v Miami Marlins

2026-08-14 22:11 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cincinnati Reds (Local)

Predicción 51.35%1.95momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.731%
Kelly -1.52%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.39%51.39%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.771.851.851.9256.50%53.98%54.05%52.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Miami Marlins (Visitante)

Predicción 48.65%2.06momio equitativo
EV -2.71%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.64%48.61%48.61%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.891.961.962.0052.91%51.04%51.02%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cincinnati Reds (Local): 51.35%; Miami Marlins (Visitante): 48.65%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.95. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.92, con un valor esperado de -1.40%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%EV -1.40%E -0.731%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-14 01:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.40%E -0.731%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -3.19%E -1.60%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-13 19:09
GTbets🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.40%E -0.731%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -3.19%E -1.60%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-13 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.40%E -0.731%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -3.19%E -1.60%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-13 19:09
BetUS🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.90%EV -1.40%E -0.731%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.10%EV -3.19%E -1.60%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-13 20:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -1.92%E -1.00%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-13 20:29
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%EV -1.92%E -1.00%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.85%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-14 01:45
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -2.43%E -1.28%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-13 23:44
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.43%E -1.28%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 19:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-13 19:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 21:44
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 19:19
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 19:44
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 01:09
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 22:14
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 02:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.62%E -2.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 19:44
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -3.97%E -2.12%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.62%E -2.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 19:44
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -4.48%E -2.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-13 23:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.48%E -2.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-13 23:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.48%E -2.41%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.62%E -2.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:44
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 22:29
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 21:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 21:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 21:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-13 21:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 01:49
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 01:49
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-13 21:14
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:13
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 01:15
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 23:49
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 19:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-13 20:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-13 20:54
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -5.00%E -2.70%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-13 20:54
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.51%E -3.00%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 22:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.51%E -3.00%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 01:49
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-13 19:19
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:04
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:10
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 22:29
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 01:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.62%E -2.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 01:48
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 23:48
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -6.02%E -3.29%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%EV -6.11%E -3.17%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 23:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -6.54%E -3.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -2.71%E -1.35%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 02:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%EV -7.05%E -3.90%K -8.71%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 21:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.99%EV -7.05%E -3.90%K -8.71%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%EV -4.65%E -2.37%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-13 21:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.63%EV -8.59%E -4.83%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.37%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 01:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -8.59%E -4.83%K -11.02%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -8.06%E -4.26%K -9.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 01:49
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.03%EV -9.11%E -5.14%K -11.83%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.97%EV -6.60%E -3.44%K -7.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-13 21:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.93I 51.81%NM 51.26%2.03I 49.26%NM 48.74%1.1%2026-08-14 02:04
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-13 20:44
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-14 01:39
Novig1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-14 01:10
Matchbook1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%8.1%2026-08-14 01:00
Smarkets1.80I 55.56%NM 51.09%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%8.7%2026-08-14 02:50

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