The School of Odds

Chicago White Sox v Boston Red Sox

2026-07-09 18:11 — MLB

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chicago White Sox (Local)

Prediction 51.30%1.95fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.33%51.32%52.63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.871.91MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
50.00%2.000Min
52.63%1.900Max
51.33%1.948Mean
51.32%1.949Median
51.30%1.949IQM
51.35%1.947Margin-weighted

Boston Red Sox (Visit)

Prediction 48.70%2.05fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.561%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.67%48.68%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.901.961.952.03MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
47.37%2.111Min
50.00%2.000Max
48.67%2.055Mean
48.68%2.054Median
48.70%2.053IQM
48.65%2.055Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

BookmakerChicago White Sox (Local) ▼Boston Red Sox (Visit)MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.91I 52.36% NM 51.15%EV -2.02% E -1.06% K -2.22% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.85%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 00:45
LowVig.ag1.91I 52.36% NM 51.15%EV -2.02% E -1.06% K -2.22% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.85%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 00:45
GTbets1.91I 52.36% NM 51.15%EV -2.02% E -1.06% K -2.22% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.85%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 00:45
BetUS1.91I 52.36% NM 51.15%EV -2.02% E -1.06% K -2.22% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.85%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-09 00:45
1xBet1.90I 52.63% NM 51.53%EV -2.53% E -1.33% K -2.81% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 48.47%EV -1.63% E -0.805% K -1.59% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 02:25
Paddy Power1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -2.53% E -1.33% K -2.81% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 50.00%EV -7.47% E -3.93% K -8.30% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:30
FanDuel1.89I 52.91% NM 50.91%EV -3.04% E -1.61% K -3.42% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 49.09%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 18:30
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19% NM 51.92%EV -3.56% E -1.89% K -4.04% G +0.000%2.03I 49.26% NM 48.08%EV -1.14% E -0.561% K -1.11% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 02:30
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19% NM 50.91%EV -3.56% E -1.89% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 49.09%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 01:15
Unibet (NL)1.88I 53.19% NM 50.91%EV -3.56% E -1.89% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 49.09%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 01:19
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19% NM 50.91%EV -3.56% E -1.89% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 49.09%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-09 01:18
SportsBet1.88I 53.19% NM 50.53%EV -3.56% E -1.89% K -4.04% G +0.000%1.92I 52.08% NM 49.47%EV -6.50% E -3.38% K -7.06% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 18:29
MyBookie.ag1.87I 53.48% NM 51.43%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.57%EV -3.57% E -1.81% K -3.65% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 02:34
Fanatics1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 23:49
PointsBet (AU)1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 00:50
PlayUp1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 00:45
Caesars1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 00:42
Hard Rock Bet1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 19:55
Betway1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 23:50
BetAnything1.87I 53.48% NM 51.05%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.95%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:20
Virgin Bet1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:19
LiveScore Bet1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:20
Unibet1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:20
Casumo1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:17
ATG (SE)1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:20
Bally Bet1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:19
betPARX1.87I 53.48% NM 50.92%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 49.08%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:25
TABtouch1.87I 53.48% NM 50.79%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.93I 51.81% NM 49.21%EV -6.01% E -3.11% K -6.46% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:20
BetRivers1.87I 53.48% NM 50.79%EV -4.07% E -2.18% K -4.68% G +0.000%1.93I 51.81% NM 49.21%EV -6.01% E -3.11% K -6.46% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:19
Bet Right1.86I 53.76% NM 51.31%EV -4.58% E -2.46% K -5.33% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.69%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 01:09
Coral1.85I 54.05% NM 51.95%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.05%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 00:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05% NM 51.95%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 48.05%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 00:45
BetMGM1.85I 54.05% NM 51.70%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.30%EV -3.57% E -1.81% K -3.65% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 00:45
Bovada1.85I 54.05% NM 51.70%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.30%EV -3.57% E -1.81% K -3.65% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 02:35
Dabble (AU)1.85I 54.05% NM 51.70%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.98I 50.51% NM 48.30%EV -3.57% E -1.81% K -3.65% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 02:35
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05% NM 51.57%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.97I 50.76% NM 48.43%EV -4.06% E -2.06% K -4.19% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 02:29
DraftKings1.85I 54.05% NM 51.57%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.97I 50.76% NM 48.43%EV -4.06% E -2.06% K -4.19% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 02:30
Betr (AU)1.85I 54.05% NM 51.44%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.56%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 01:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05% NM 51.44%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.56%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 01:30
Neds1.85I 54.05% NM 51.44%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.56%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 01:29
Betsson1.85I 54.05% NM 51.32%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.68%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 00:44
NordicBet1.85I 54.05% NM 51.32%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.68%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 00:45
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05% NM 51.32%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.68%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:25
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05% NM 50.80%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 49.20%EV -6.98% E -3.66% K -7.67% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 01:17
888sport1.85I 54.05% NM 50.80%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 49.20%EV -6.98% E -3.66% K -7.67% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 01:09
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05% NM 50.80%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 49.20%EV -6.98% E -3.66% K -7.67% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 01:09
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05% NM 50.80%EV -5.09% E -2.75% K -5.99% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 49.20%EV -6.98% E -3.66% K -7.67% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-09 01:09
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35% NM 51.58%EV -5.61% E -3.05% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.42%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 02:29
Marathon Bet1.84I 54.35% NM 51.58%EV -5.61% E -3.05% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.96I 51.02% NM 48.42%EV -4.55% E -2.32% K -4.74% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 02:19
Betclic (FR)1.84I 54.35% NM 51.32%EV -5.61% E -3.05% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 48.68%EV -5.52% E -2.85% K -5.87% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 02:31
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64% NM 52.22%EV -6.12% E -3.34% K -7.37% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.78%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 23:35
Fliff1.83I 54.64% NM 51.59%EV -6.12% E -3.34% K -7.37% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.41%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 23:45
ReBet1.83I 54.64% NM 51.59%EV -6.12% E -3.34% K -7.37% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.41%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 02:29
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64% NM 51.59%EV -6.12% E -3.34% K -7.37% G +0.000%1.95I 51.28% NM 48.41%EV -5.04% E -2.58% K -5.30% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 02:29
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64% NM 51.07%EV -6.12% E -3.34% K -7.37% G +0.000%1.91I 52.36% NM 48.93%EV -6.98% E -3.66% K -7.67% G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-09 01:30
William Hill1.80I 55.56% NM 52.63%EV -7.66% E -4.26% K -9.57% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 47.37%EV -2.60% E -1.30% K -2.60% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 19:49
Unibet (FR)1.80I 55.56% NM 51.35%EV -7.66% E -4.26% K -9.57% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 48.65%EV -7.47% E -3.93% K -8.30% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-09 02:30
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56% NM 51.35%EV -7.66% E -4.26% K -9.57% G +0.000%1.90I 52.63% NM 48.65%EV -7.47% E -3.93% K -8.30% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-09 02:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerChicago White Sox (Local)Boston Red Sox (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.94I 51.55% NM 51.50%2.06I 48.54% NM 48.50%0.1%2026-07-09 02:35
Novig1.92I 52.08% NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54% NM 48.24%0.6%2026-07-09 02:35
Kalshi1.92I 52.08% NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02% NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-08 21:25
Polymarket1.92I 52.08% NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02% NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-08 23:15
ProphetX1.89I 52.91% NM 51.79%2.03I 49.26% NM 48.21%2.2%2026-07-09 02:20
Matchbook1.88I 53.19% NM 51.79%2.02I 49.50% NM 48.21%2.7%2026-07-09 02:25
Smarkets1.78I 56.18% NM 51.37%1.88I 53.19% NM 48.63%9.4%2026-07-09 02:35