Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v New York Mets

Início: 2026-04-17 18:21 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 12–4 New York Mets

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Previsão 58.17%1.72odd justa
EV -1.69%
Vantagem -1.00%
Kelly -2.45%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.69

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.22%58.19%58.23%59.49%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.601.641.641.6962.50%61.07%60.98%59.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

New York Mets (Visitante)

Previsão 41.83%2.39odd justa
EV -0.866%
Vantagem -0.365%
Kelly -0.632%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.37

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.51%41.81%41.77%42.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.202.302.302.3745.45%43.56%43.48%42.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chicago Cubs (Local): 58.17%; New York Mets (Visitante): 41.83%. Para New York Mets (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.39. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.37, com valor esperado de -0.866%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.69%E -1.00%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -2.54%E -1.09%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-17 17:29
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.96%EV -1.69%E -1.00%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.04%EV -2.54%E -1.09%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-17 18:19
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -2.27%E -1.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-17 17:55
TAB🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.27%E -1.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-17 16:54
GTbets🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -0.866%E -0.365%K -0.632%G +0.000%2.1%2026-04-17 18:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-17 18:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-17 18:04
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.54%E -1.09%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-17 17:49
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-17 15:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -5.05%E -2.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-17 18:08
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:49
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 16:49
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.29%EV -2.85%E -1.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.71%EV -6.30%E -2.81%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-17 15:49
BetUS🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -3.44%E -2.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-17 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -3.44%E -2.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-17 15:39
Betsson🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.44%E -2.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.14%E -3.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 16:54
NordicBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.44%E -2.07%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -7.14%E -3.22%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-17 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-17 17:04
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-17 16:54
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-17 17:50
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 18:14
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 16:44
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 16:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 16:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.02%E -2.43%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 18:04
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -3.38%E -1.46%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 17:56
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.05%E -2.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 17:04
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -5.05%E -2.22%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.47%E -2.42%K -4.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 17:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-17 15:49
Bet Right🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.60%E -2.80%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -5.18%E -3.18%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-17 15:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.18%E -3.18%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 18:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-17 15:44
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.96%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.96%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:19
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.96%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.96%E -1.27%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:19
888sport🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 15:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 15:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 15:34
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-17 15:39
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 18:19
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-17 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.76%E -3.56%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 15:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -6.34%E -3.94%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-17 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.70%E -0.724%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-17 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.79%E -1.65%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-17 14:34
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.89%E -2.62%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 15:53
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.93%E -4.33%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.98%E -3.63%K -6.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-17 18:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (10)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-04-17 18:19
BetOpenly1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-04-17 16:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-04-17 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-04-17 18:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-04-17 18:19
Polymarket1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-04-17 18:20
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-04-17 15:59
Novig1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.2%2026-04-17 18:20
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%1.9%2026-04-17 18:19
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%2.3%2026-04-17 17:39