L’École des cotes

Chicago Cubs v Minnesota Twins

Coup d’envoi : 2026-07-18 00:06 UTC

Score final : Chicago Cubs 2–5 Minnesota Twins

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Prévision 57.20%1.75cote équitable
EV -1.62%
Avantage -0.940%
Kelly -2.25%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
55.26%57.09%57.14%58.31%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.571.661.651.7263.69%60.37%60.42%58.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Minnesota Twins (Visiteur)

Prévision 42.80%2.34cote équitable
EV +0.582%
Avantage +0.248%
Kelly +0.431%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 2.35

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
41.69%42.91%42.86%44.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.232.232.3547.62%44.86%44.84%42.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
GTbets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV +0.582%E +0.248%K +0.431%G +0.003%2.1%2026-07-17 23:45
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%EV +0.582%E +0.248%K +0.431%G +0.003%2.1%2026-07-18 00:00
LowVig.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -0.274%E -0.118%K -0.206%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-17 23:44
BetOnline.ag1.68I 59.52%NM 58.10%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -0.274%E -0.118%K -0.206%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-17 23:44
Everygame1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36%EV -2.19%E -1.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64%EV -1.56%E -0.678%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-17 16:39
BetUS1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%EV -1.56%E -0.678%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-17 21:49
BetAnything1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -1.56%E -0.678%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-17 23:44
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.56%E -0.678%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 20:43
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 58.12%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.88%EV -1.99%E -0.867%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 23:55
1xBet1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -1.62%E -0.940%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-17 22:54
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet (NL)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
ATG (SE)1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Svenska Spel1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -2.41%E -1.06%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:05
MyBookie.ag1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -2.84%E -1.25%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 23:08
ReBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 23:04
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 20:34
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:09
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:04
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:54
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:54
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.19%E -3.78%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 22:09
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.91%E -4.91%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.70%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -5.05%E -3.04%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -4.13%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 22:04
Coolbet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.05%E -3.04%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 20:34
Grosvenor1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
TABtouch1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
Bally Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -4.55%E -2.04%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
SportsBet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.98%E -2.24%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 21:14
FanDuel1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -6.19%E -3.78%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -4.98%E -2.24%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 00:05
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.41%E -2.45%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 22:54
DraftKings1.63I 61.35%NM 57.55%EV -6.77%E -4.15%K -10.74%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.45%EV -5.41%E -2.45%K -4.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 00:05
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.76%E -1.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 00:04
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 23:00
Fliff1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 23:24
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 14:14
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 22:54
Dabble (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 23:34
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 23:04
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.48%E -2.68%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 23:55
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 00:00
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 21:39
BetRivers1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.91%E -4.91%K -12.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.84%E -2.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 00:05
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 00:03
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 00:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%EV -10.20%E -6.49%K -17.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.87%EV -6.69%E -3.07%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 00:05
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -2.76%E -1.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -7.12%E -3.28%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-18 00:05
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%EV -7.34%E -4.53%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%EV -7.55%E -3.50%K -6.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-17 23:38
Betway1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.98%E -3.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-18 00:05
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.98%E -3.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-18 00:05
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.98%E -3.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 00:05
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.76%E -1.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.12%E -4.82%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 00:04
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -3.33%E -1.97%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -10.12%E -4.82%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-18 00:05
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -3.91%E -2.32%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -10.12%E -4.82%K -9.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 00:05
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.62%E -3.41%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.12%E -4.82%K -9.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (10)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
BetOpenly1.72I 58.14%NM 58.25%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.75%-0.2%2026-07-17 23:55
Matchbook1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%0.2%2026-07-18 00:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%0.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%0.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.70%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.30%0.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Smarkets1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-07-18 00:05
ProphetX1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-18 00:05
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-07-17 22:19
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%2.1%2026-07-18 00:05