Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers

2026-08-05 00:06 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Predicción 36.34%2.75momio equitativo
EV +0.310%
Ventaja +0.112%
Kelly +0.176%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.25%36.34%36.43%38.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.632.632.7640.82%38.02%37.95%36.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante)

Predicción 63.66%1.57momio equitativo
EV -0.060%
Ventaja -0.038%
Kelly -0.106%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.25%63.66%63.57%64.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.501.501.5769.93%66.51%66.67%63.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Chicago Cubs (Local): 36.34%; Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante): 63.66%. Para Chicago Cubs (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.75. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.76, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.310%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
FanDuel2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66%EV +0.310%E +0.112%K +0.176%G +0.001%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.34%EV -2.61%E -1.70%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-04 17:15
Hard Rock Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 35.90%EV -0.053%E -0.019%K -0.031%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.10%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.3%2026-08-04 21:54
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -0.053%E -0.019%K -0.031%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 21:54
DraftKings2.74I 36.50%NM 35.98%EV -0.417%E -0.152%K -0.240%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.02%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-04 18:34
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 21:53
BetRivers2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 21:50
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 21:50
betano_uk2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 21:54
TAB2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-04 20:00
Fliff2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.87%E -0.693%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 22:04
Caesars2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64%EV -2.60%E -0.969%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36%EV -1.33%E -0.860%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.8%2026-08-04 21:07
Pinnacle2.67I 37.45%NM 36.73%EV -2.96%E -1.11%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.27%EV -1.33%E -0.860%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 21:55
LowVig.ag2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -2.96%E -1.11%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-04 17:15
BetOnline.ag2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -2.96%E -1.11%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-04 17:15
SportsBet2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -2.96%E -1.11%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 17:19
GTbets2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-04 17:14
ReBet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.88%E -2.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 18:35
theScore Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.88%E -2.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 17:15
MyBookie.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -3.88%E -2.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 17:59
PointsBet (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 17:14
Bet Right2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 17:35
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 21:49
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 21:50
NordicBet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.79%E -3.91%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:00
Betsson2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.79%E -3.91%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:00
PlayUp2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.79%E -3.91%K -12.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:00
888sport2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:14
Mr Green (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:14
888sport (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:14
Dabble (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -3.69%E -1.39%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -7.06%E -4.84%K -15.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-04 22:04
BetAnything2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -4.05%E -1.53%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.61%E -1.70%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-04 20:49
Casumo2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:49
Unibet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:49
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:49
betPARX2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:49
Bally Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:50
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.41%E -1.68%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -5.15%E -3.46%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 21:49
BetUS2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -4.78%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-04 19:45
Paddy Power2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -4.78%E -1.82%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.34%E -5.79%K -18.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 21:40
1xBet2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -5.14%E -1.97%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV -0.060%E -0.038%K -0.106%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 20:19
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.88%E -2.57%K -7.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 17:14
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:19
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 21:55
Betr (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 19:50
William Hill2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 18:25
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:14
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.52%E -3.01%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 17:35
Betclic (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.15%E -3.46%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 21:54
Winamax (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -5.15%E -3.46%K -10.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 21:54
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 21:49
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 21:49
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.51%E -2.12%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.43%E -4.37%K -13.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 17:14
Bovada2.59I 38.61%NM 36.98%EV -5.87%E -2.27%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.02%EV -3.24%E -2.13%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 21:40
Winamax (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.79%E -3.91%K -12.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 21:55
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.32%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -8.97%E -6.27%K -20.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-04 21:50
BetMGM2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -7.69%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -2.61%E -1.70%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:04
Marathon Bet2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -8.05%E -3.18%K -5.26%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -3.24%E -2.13%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:15
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.14%E -3.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.61%E -1.70%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.14%E -3.66%K -6.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.61%E -1.70%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 21:04
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -10.96%E -4.47%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.33%E -0.860%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 21:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -10.96%E -4.47%K -7.56%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -1.33%E -0.860%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 21:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%0.3%2026-08-04 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%0.3%2026-08-04 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%0.3%2026-08-04 22:00
Matchbook2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.89%0.3%2026-08-04 21:10
Novig2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-08-04 21:35
ProphetX2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-08-04 21:45
BetOpenly2.75I 36.36%NM 36.05%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.95%0.9%2026-08-04 21:40
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-08-04 17:55
Polymarket2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-08-04 18:25
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.00%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.00%2.1%2026-08-04 21:15
Arbitraje (1 combinación) +0.07%FanDuel 2.76 (36.3%) / 1xBet 1.57 (63.7%)Ver detalles
Chicago Cubs (Local)Los Angeles Dodgers (Visitante)Margen
FanDuel 2.76 (36.3%)1xBet 1.57 (63.7%)+0.074%