Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds

Início: 2026-08-30 23:46 UTC

Final: Chicago Cubs 5–7 Cincinnati Reds

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Chicago Cubs (Local)

Previsão 58.94%1.70odd justa
EV -0.976%
Vantagem -0.581%
Kelly -1.43%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.68

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.69%58.95%58.96%60.87%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.531.621.621.6865.36%61.79%61.73%59.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Cincinnati Reds (Visitante)

Previsão 41.06%2.44odd justa
EV +1.82%
Vantagem +0.734%
Kelly +1.23%
Crescimento +0.022%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.48

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.13%41.05%41.04%42.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.152.322.342.4846.51%43.10%42.74%40.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Chicago Cubs (Local): 58.94%; Cincinnati Reds (Visitante): 41.06%. Para Cincinnati Reds (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.44. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.48, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.82%.

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.49%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.51%EV +1.82%E +0.734%K +1.23%G +0.022%2.1%2026-08-30 23:10
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.76%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 40.24%EV +0.589%E +0.241%K +0.407%G +0.002%1.4%2026-08-30 23:35
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -7.46%E -4.75%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -1.05%E -0.437%K -0.747%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 23:09
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.97%EV -1.57%E -0.937%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.03%EV -1.46%E -0.610%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-30 22:35
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.46%E -0.610%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 23:45
BetAnything🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -1.87%E -0.784%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-30 23:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.28%E -0.960%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 22:40
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.82%E -6.42%K -18.52%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.28%E -0.960%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 23:10
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-30 20:55
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.96%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.04%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-30 23:40
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 23:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 23:35
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 23:35
GTbets🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.42%EV -0.976%E -0.581%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.58%EV -3.11%E -1.32%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-30 23:45
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%EV -1.57%E -0.937%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.54%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-30 23:19
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 23:25
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 23:40
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 23:35
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 23:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 23:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.28%E -3.95%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%EV -0.976%E -0.581%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 23:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%EV -0.976%E -0.581%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 23:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 15:54
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 21:50
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 16:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 23:14
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 23:30
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 22:29
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 22:30
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 21:50
betPARX🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 21:50
Bally Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.92%E -2.41%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 21:50
Fliff🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 23:30
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 22:55
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.79%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 23:14
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 23:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 23:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.64%E -5.57%K -15.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.57%E -2.42%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -6.39%E -2.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 23:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 23:35
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 23:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 23:45
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 23:45
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 23:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.46%E -4.75%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.62%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 23:39
ReBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.87%E -4.35%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -8.44%E -3.79%K -6.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 23:40
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.84%EV -8.05%E -5.16%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.16%EV -8.44%E -3.79%K -6.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 23:14
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 23:35
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -5.69%E -3.56%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 23:33
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -7.46%E -4.75%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.67%E -4.40%K -8.06%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -8.05%E -5.16%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -11.73%E -5.45%K -10.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 23:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (9)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Novig◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.92%2.41I 41.49%NM 41.08%1.0%2026-08-30 23:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.2%2026-08-30 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-08-30 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69%1.6%2026-08-30 23:45
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-08-30 23:30
Polymarket◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.77%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.23%1.9%2026-08-30 23:45
Matchbook◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%2.3%2026-08-30 23:45
ProphetX◎1.66I 60.24%NM 58.71%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.29%2.6%2026-08-30 23:45
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%8.0%2026-08-30 23:25