Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels

2026-08-05 22:36 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 56.13%1.78momio equitativo
EV -0.643%
Ventaja -0.363%
Kelly -0.835%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.31%56.07%56.14%56.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.711.701.7760.98%58.62%58.82%56.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Los Angeles Angels (Visitante)

Predicción 43.87%2.28momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.579%
Kelly -1.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%43.93%43.86%45.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.172.172.2548.78%46.08%46.19%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 56.13%; Los Angeles Angels (Visitante): 43.87%. Para Baltimore Orioles (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.78. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.77, con un valor esperado de -0.643%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -0.643%E -0.363%K -0.835%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 21:45
1xBet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-04 22:45
Dabble (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.77%E -1.01%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.76%E -4.21%K -8.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 01:44
GTbets1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.30%E -0.579%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-04 19:14
Caesars1.74I 57.47%NM 56.39%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 43.61%EV -1.30%E -0.579%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-04 20:09
BetOnline.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 19:14
LowVig.ag1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 19:14
BetUS1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 22:54
Pinnacle1.74I 57.47%NM 56.06%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.94%EV -2.62%E -1.18%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-04 23:40
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.33%E -1.34%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -5.25%E -2.43%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 18:25
BetAnything1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -2.89%E -1.67%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.81%E -2.22%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-05 01:49
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:40
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.45%E -2.01%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.88%E -3.75%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 18:24
PointsBet (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 19:15
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 21:14
Betway1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 22:55
MyBookie.ag1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -3.93%E -1.80%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-05 01:25
888sport1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 18:29
888sport (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 18:30
Mr Green (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.01%E -2.35%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-04 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 19:10
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 19:09
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-05 01:24
Unibet (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.37%E -2.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 20:10
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.37%E -2.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 20:14
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -4.37%E -2.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 21:15
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.81%E -2.22%K -4.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-05 02:24
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:10
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:30
Winamax (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:09
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 02:20
Marathon Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.57%E -2.69%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-05 00:30
Fliff1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 18:24
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-05 01:55
NordicBet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.25%E -2.43%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 20:10
Betsson1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.25%E -2.43%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 20:10
ReBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-04 22:39
Betclic (FR)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.13%E -3.04%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -6.13%E -2.86%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 20:10
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.50%E -1.59%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 20:24
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 18:24
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:07
betano_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-04 20:09
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.26%E -3.75%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.69%E -2.65%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 02:39
Unibet (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.38%E -4.47%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-04 22:39
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -7.94%E -4.84%K -12.41%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -10.07%E -4.91%K -9.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-04 23:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84%0.0%2026-08-04 23:49
Novig1.79I 55.87%NM 55.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.31%0.3%2026-08-05 02:35
ProphetX1.76I 56.82%NM 56.54%2.29I 43.67%NM 43.46%0.5%2026-08-05 02:35
Polymarket1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-08-05 02:15
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-08-04 18:25
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%2.9%2026-08-05 01:40
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 55.68%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.32%9.5%2026-08-05 02:40