The School of Odds

Athletics v Washington Nationals

2026-07-19 02:06 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Athletics (Local)

Prediction 53.38%1.87fair odd
EV -0.712%
Edge -0.383%
Kelly -0.828%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%53.50%53.32%54.31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.771.8659%56%56%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Washington Nationals (Visit)

Prediction 46.62%2.15fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.69%46.50%46.68%47.37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.052.1152%49%49%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet1.86I 53.76%NM 52.67%EV -0.712%E -0.383%K -0.828%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.33%EV -3.50%E -1.69%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-17 18:14
LowVig.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.85%E -1.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.63%E -0.774%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:59
BetOnline.ag1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -2.85%E -1.56%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -1.63%E -0.774%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-17 17:59
MyBookie.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.50%E -1.69%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 18:09
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:04
Caesars1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-17 18:04
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.91%E -2.17%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.76%E -3.38%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 17:59
DraftKings1.79I 55.87%NM 53.26%EV -4.45%E -2.49%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.74%EV -4.90%E -2.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 18:09
Bet Right1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.98%E -2.80%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 18:24
Unibet (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.98%E -2.80%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.90%E -2.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 18:10
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -4.98%E -2.80%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.76%E -3.38%K -6.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 18:09
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.52%E -3.12%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.10%E -1.000%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 17:59
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.52%E -3.12%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 18:44
Betclic (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.52%E -3.12%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -5.83%E -2.89%K -5.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 18:13
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -6.05%E -3.44%K -7.96%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 18:10
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.03%E -1.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 18:00
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 17:59
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 18:09
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 18:10
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.43%E -2.16%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 18:09
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.76%E -3.38%K -6.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 18:09
betano_uk1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.58%E -3.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.76%E -3.38%K -6.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 20:00
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%EV -8.72%E -5.10%K -12.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%EV -9.56%E -4.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-17 18:09
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -9.25%E -5.44%K -13.22%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -9.56%E -4.93%K -10.17%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-17 18:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-17 19:20
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-17 20:09
Novig1.69I 59.17%NM 54.45%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.55%8.7%2026-07-17 20:09
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.85%10.0%2026-07-17 18:10