Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks v San Diego Padres

2026-08-05 01:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Arizona Diamondbacks (Local)

Predicción 52.39%1.91momio equitativo
EV -0.978%
Ventaja -0.518%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.59%52.46%52.38%53.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.821.831.8957.47%54.86%54.64%52.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

San Diego Padres (Visitante)

Predicción 47.61%2.10momio equitativo
EV -0.976%
Ventaja -0.469%
Kelly -0.904%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.05%47.54%47.62%48.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.022.002.0851.28%49.60%50.00%48.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Arizona Diamondbacks (Local): 52.39%; San Diego Padres (Visitante): 47.61%. Para San Diego Padres (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.10. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.08, con un valor esperado de -0.976%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%EV -0.978%E -0.518%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-04 23:15
Pinnacle1.88I 53.19%NM 52.16%EV -1.50%E -0.799%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.84%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-04 23:25
FanDuel1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -1.50%E -0.799%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-04 20:30
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 52.66%EV -2.03%E -1.08%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.34%EV -0.976%E -0.469%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-04 23:55
Hard Rock Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.03%E -1.08%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-04 21:54
BetUS1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV -2.03%E -1.08%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-05 00:05
GTbets1.85I 54.05%NM 52.81%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.19%EV -1.45%E -0.702%K -1.36%G +0.000%2.4%2026-08-05 00:00
Caesars1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.93%E -0.936%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-04 21:44
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.93%E -0.936%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-05 00:00
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%EV -1.93%E -0.936%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-04 23:54
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-04 23:54
betano_uk1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-04 23:54
BetAnything1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-05 00:04
MyBookie.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV -4.31%E -2.14%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 23:59
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.07%E -1.66%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 14:40
BetRivers1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -1.45%E -0.702%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 23:35
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.92%EV -1.45%E -0.702%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-04 23:35
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.83%E -1.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-04 23:54
PointsBet (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 21:29
ReBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 20:35
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 20:39
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:09
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 22:30
Betway1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 14:39
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 14:38
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 14:40
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 14:35
NordicBet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 14:39
Betsson1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 14:39
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 23:14
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 14:39
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.12%E -2.25%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.17%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 21:25
Unibet (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 23:54
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 23:55
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-04 20:39
SportsBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.26%E -2.64%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 20:29
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.26%E -2.64%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 20:40
Dabble (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.65%E -2.55%K -5.67%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 23:50
Unibet (NL)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -5.17%E -2.86%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 23:35
Unibet (SE)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -5.17%E -2.86%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 23:35
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-04 14:40
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:35
Bally Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:34
betPARX1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:35
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:34
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 23:34
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-05 00:00
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 15:49
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 15:49
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 15:49
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 23:54
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 14:19
Betclic (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 23:54
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.74%E -2.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 23:55
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.69%E -3.16%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.17%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-04 23:14
TABtouch1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -6.22%E -3.47%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -3.83%E -1.90%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-04 23:34
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.27%E -4.10%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 23:35
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.27%E -4.10%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.78%E -2.39%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-04 23:35
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.31%E -4.75%K -11.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.40%E -1.17%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-04 23:59
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.84%E -5.08%K -11.94%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -7.17%E -3.67%K -7.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-04 23:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.91I 52.36%NM 52.49%2.11I 47.39%NM 47.51%-0.3%2026-08-05 00:04
ProphetX1.91I 52.36%NM 52.25%2.09I 47.85%NM 47.75%0.2%2026-08-05 00:00
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-04 23:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-04 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-04 23:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.63%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.37%0.5%2026-08-04 23:50
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74%0.7%2026-08-04 23:00
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-08-04 23:50
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-08-04 20:35
Smarkets1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%2.0%2026-08-04 23:40