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Western Bulldogs v Melbourne Demons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Western Bulldogs (Local)
Prediction 46.51%2.15fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.59%46.41%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.022.1052.63%49.66%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Demons (Visit)
Prediction 53.49%1.87fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.41%53.59%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.771.781.8361.35%56.57%56.18%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 46.51%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 53.49%. For Melbourne Demons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -2.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.32%E -1.10%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.47%E -4.32%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-24 05:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 01:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 04:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 01:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-24 05:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.33%E -3.01%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 05:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.87%E -3.33%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 05:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.47%E -4.32%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-23 23:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -4.64%E -2.27%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -7.47%E -4.32%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-23 23:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -5.11%E -2.50%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.19%E -1.76%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-24 04:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -5.11%E -2.50%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 04:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 04:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 04:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 04:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.04%E -2.99%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-24 04:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -3.19%E -1.76%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-24 03:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 04:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 05:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.73%E -2.07%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-24 04:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.01%E -4.65%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -8.01%E -4.65%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-24 02:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -6.97%E -3.49%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -9.08%E -5.34%K -12.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-22 17:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -7.90%E -3.99%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -4.80%E -2.69%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-24 04:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -8.37%E -4.25%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -5.87%E -3.33%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 05:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -9.30%E -4.77%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.40%E -3.66%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-24 03:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -11.16%E -5.84%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.12%E -1.16%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-24 02:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.18%EV -11.62%E -6.12%K -12.91%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.82%EV -12.82%E -7.86%K -20.35%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-24 05:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 0.4% | 2026-05-24 05:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63% | 0.4% | 2026-05-24 05:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-05-24 05:10 |