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Western Bulldogs v Adelaide Crows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Western Bulldogs (Local)
Prediction 56.79%1.76fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%56.62%56.84%58.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.661.671.7364.52%60.16%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adelaide Crows (Visit)
Prediction 43.21%2.31fair odd
EV -0.616%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.474%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%43.38%43.16%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.202.3050.00%46.01%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Bulldogs (Local): 56.79%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 43.21%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.616%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -1.75%E -1.01%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-10 07:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -1.75%E -1.01%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -11.42%E -5.57%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-10 07:38 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.89%E -1.69%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-10 12:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.46%E -2.03%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -6.23%E -2.87%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-11 08:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-11 07:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -13.58%E -6.79%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-11 06:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -13.58%E -6.79%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-06-11 06:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-11 08:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-11 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-11 08:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-11 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-11 09:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-11 08:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-11 08:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -5.73%E -3.45%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -1.91%E -0.842%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-11 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 08:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 08:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 08:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 09:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 09:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.78%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-11 07:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-11 09:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.30%E -3.82%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-11 01:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -6.87%E -4.19%K -10.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -0.616%E -0.268%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-11 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -7.43%E -4.56%K -11.80%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -6.23%E -2.87%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-11 09:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.14%E -5.71%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.94%E -2.24%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-11 09:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.58%EV -11.98%E -7.73%K -21.77%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.42%EV -12.71%E -6.29%K -12.47%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-11 08:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-11 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-11 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16% | 0.5% | 2026-06-11 09:20 |