The School of Odds

West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions

2026-07-18 10:10 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

West Coast Eagles (Local)

Prediction 12.63%7.92fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.129%
Kelly +0.148%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%12.73%12.65%16.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.507.107.008.0018%14%14%13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 87.37%1.14fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -3.54%
Kelly -38.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.84%87.27%87.35%88.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.011.081.081.1099%93%93%91%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.03%E +0.129%K +0.148%G +0.002%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 09:39
Tipico (DE)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +1.03%E +0.129%K +0.148%G +0.002%1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -8.26%E -7.87%K -165.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-12 12:14
TAB7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.28%E -0.704%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.77%E -4.37%K -52.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 10:19
PointsBet (AU)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.28%E -0.704%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.77%E -4.37%K -52.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 10:09
Coolbet7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -5.28%E -0.704%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.77%E -4.37%K -52.95%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 10:34
Paddy Power7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.28%E -0.704%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 10:34
Betr (AU)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.28%E -0.704%K -0.812%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 09:49
Marathon Bet7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53%EV -6.54%E -0.884%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.47%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-12 14:49
Grosvenor7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.60%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.89%E -3.54%K -38.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:09
Casumo7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.60%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.89%E -3.54%K -38.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:09
TABtouch7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.60%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.89%E -3.54%K -38.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:09
Unibet (NL)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.60%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.89%E -3.54%K -38.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 10:10
NetBet (FR)7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -11.60%E -1.66%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 87.39%EV -11.76%E -11.64%K -1175.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-12 10:39
Bet Right6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -14.75%E -2.19%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.02%E -2.72%K -27.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 09:39
NordicBet6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.91%E -2.76%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 10:24
Betsson6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.91%E -2.76%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 10:24
Unibet6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -21.07%E -3.37%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -3.89%E -3.54%K -38.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 10:09
Unibet (FR)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -30.54%E -5.55%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 83.84%EV -7.39%E -6.97%K -123.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-12 10:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%5.1%2026-07-12 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%5.1%2026-07-12 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%5.1%2026-07-12 12:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas6.70I 14.93%NM 13.65%1.07I 93.46%NM 85.44%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.4%2026-07-12 10:24