Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Coast Eagles v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 10:10 UTC

Final: West Coast Eagles 69–93 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

15%

85%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

West Coast Eagles (Local)

Prediction 15.12%6.61fair odd

EV +20.96%

Edge +2.62%

Kelly +2.99%

Growth +0.627%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.60%15.05%14.70%18.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.156.366.388.0019.42%15.72%15.69%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 84.88%1.18fair odd

EV -3.24%

Edge -2.84%

Kelly -23.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.88%84.95%85.30%88.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.111.111.1497.09%90.47%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: West Coast Eagles (Local): 15.12%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 84.88%. For West Coast Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.61. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.96%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV +20.96%E +2.62%K +2.99%G +0.627%	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -10.88%E -10.36%K -217.51%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-12 12:14
Betr (AU)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 09:05
Grosvenor	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 09:45
Casumo	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 09:45
TABtouch	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 09:45
Unibet (NL)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 09:45
Coral	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.33%E -7.71%K -104.12%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 00:59
Ladbrokes (UK)	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +5.84%E +0.834%K +0.973%G +0.057%	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.33%E -7.71%K -104.12%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 01:00
Coolbet	6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +1.30%E +0.194%K +0.228%G +0.003%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.57%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-18 09:30
PointsBet (AU)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.72%E -0.265%K -0.313%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-18 10:05
Ladbrokes (AU)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.72%E -0.265%K -0.313%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-18 09:50
Neds	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.72%E -0.265%K -0.313%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-18 09:50
Dabble (AU)	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.72%E -0.265%K -0.313%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.57%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-18 09:50
Bet Right	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.50%E -0.880%K -1.05%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-18 10:05
Unibet	6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -5.50%E -0.880%K -1.05%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-18 09:45
TAB	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.09%E -3.62%K -31.43%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 10:05
PlayUp	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.09%E -3.62%K -31.43%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-18 10:05
SportsBet	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 10:05
Paddy Power	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 09:25
DraftKings	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-18 10:05
NetBet (FR)	6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -9.28%E -1.55%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -12.57%E -12.21%K -419.11%G +0.000%	13.8%	2026-07-18 10:09
Pinnacle	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -12.31%E -2.12%K -2.56%G +0.000%	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -4.09%E -3.62%K -31.43%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-18 10:00
Everygame	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.84%E -3.06%K -3.74%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.93%E -4.41%K -41.12%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-18 10:09
NordicBet	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%EV -16.84%E -3.06%K -3.74%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.33%EV -6.63%E -6.03%K -66.32%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-07-18 08:50
Unibet (FR)	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -21.38%E -4.11%K -5.09%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 82.67%EV -7.48%E -6.86%K -83.12%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-07-18 09:55
Marathon Bet	5.15I 19.42%NM 18.12%EV -22.13%E -4.30%K -5.33%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.88%EV -3.24%E -2.84%K -23.12%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-18 10:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%	1.6%	2026-07-18 10:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)	6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%	1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12%	1.6%	2026-07-18 10:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.91%	1.18I 84.75%NM 83.09%	2.0%	2026-07-18 10:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
Betsson	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%	125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%	9.1%	2026-07-18 10:09
LeoVegas	5.80I 17.24%NM 15.80%	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.29%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%	9.2%	2026-07-18 08:50