The School of Odds
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Sydney Swans v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 05:16 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 104–102 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 79.90%1.25fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -11.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%79.83%79.65%81.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.181.181.2290.09%84.77%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 20.10%4.98fair odd
EV +2.49%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.608%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.66%20.17%20.35%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.624.655.1025.64%21.66%21.51%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 79.90%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 20.10%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +2.49%E +0.489%K +0.608%G +0.015%5.1%2026-06-07 04:49
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +2.49%E +0.489%K +0.608%G +0.015%5.1%2026-06-07 04:50
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +2.49%E +0.489%K +0.608%G +0.015%5.1%2026-06-07 04:49
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +2.49%E +0.489%K +0.608%G +0.015%5.1%2026-06-07 04:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -7.31%E -6.30%K -45.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV +0.483%E +0.097%K +0.121%G +0.001%6.2%2026-06-07 02:59
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.01%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.99%EV +0.282%E +0.056%K +0.071%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-07 05:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.28%EV -8.91%E -7.82%K -63.64%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.72%EV -0.522%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-07 04:59
PlayUp🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.71%E -4.84%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -2.53%E -0.522%K -0.658%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-07 03:09
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.71%E -4.84%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.54%E -0.737%K -0.931%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-07 05:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.71%E -4.84%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.54%E -0.737%K -0.931%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-07 05:09
SportsBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.91%E -4.13%K -25.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.54%E -0.956%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-07 05:09
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.91%E -4.13%K -25.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -4.54%E -0.956%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-07 05:09
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.71%E -4.84%K -31.74%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -5.55%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-07 05:09
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -5.55%E -1.18%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-07 04:50
Coolbet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -7.56%E -1.64%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-07 05:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-07 01:09
Neds🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-07 01:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 23:29
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-02 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-06 04:19
Everygame🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.31%E -6.30%K -45.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.57%E -2.13%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-07 02:28
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.98%E -3.00%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-03 00:29
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.12%E -3.43%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -12.98%E -3.00%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-03 00:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.10%EV -11.31%E -10.19%K -102.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.90%EV -15.59%E -3.71%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.9%2026-06-07 04:59
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -4.91%E -4.13%K -25.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -17.60%E -4.29%K -5.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-07 04:09
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -4.91%E -4.13%K -25.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -17.60%E -4.29%K -5.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-07 04:09
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -2.52%E -2.06%K -11.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -19.61%E -4.90%K -6.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-07 04:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.92%EV -6.51%E -5.57%K -38.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -21.62%E -5.54%K -7.46%G +0.000%11.1%2026-06-07 05:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90%0.3%2026-06-07 04:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90%0.3%2026-06-07 04:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%0.7%2026-06-07 05:09