The School of Odds
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Sydney Swans v Melbourne Demons

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 05:16 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 131–114 Melbourne Demons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 83.32%1.20fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -3.64%
Kelly -27.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.52%83.29%82.83%85.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.131.121.1594.34%88.87%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Demons (Visit)

Prediction 16.68%6.00fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.680%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.85%16.71%17.17%20.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.355.705.606.2522.99%17.55%17.86%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 83.32%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 16.68%. For Melbourne Demons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.00. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 05:10
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 05:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 05:10
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 05:11
PlayUp🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 04:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%5.3%2026-05-03 02:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -9.18%E -8.42%K -102.01%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034%7.7%2026-05-03 04:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -44.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.078%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-03 02:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.35%E -7.59%K -83.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +0.078%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 04:30
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.76%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -44.98%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.24%EV -2.76%E -0.473%K -0.571%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 04:50
TAB🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.26%E -0.562%K -0.679%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 05:05
Bet Right🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.09%E -0.712%K -0.861%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 04:30
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.59%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 05:10
Coolbet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 05:10
Neds🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 04:00
SportsBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 04:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 03:30
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 05:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-03 02:40
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.51%E -6.77%K -68.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 05:15
BetUS🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.43%E -2.37%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 12:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 82.79%EV -11.68%E -11.02%K -194.67%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.21%EV -14.93%E -2.93%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 04:50
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.60%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 05:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.52%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.48%EV -27.44%E -6.31%K -8.19%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 05:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-05-03 05:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-05-03 05:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-05-03 05:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-05-03 05:15
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-05-03 05:14