语言:简体中文
Sydney Swans v Melbourne Demons
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Sydney Swans (主队)
预测 83.32%1.20公平赔率
EV -4.18%
优势 -3.64%
Kelly -27.88%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.15
博彩公司预测分布
79.52%83.29%82.83%85.15%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.061.131.121.1594.34%88.87%89.29%86.96%最小值均值中位数最大值
Melbourne Demons (客队)
预测 16.68%6.00公平赔率
EV +4.25%
优势 +0.680%
Kelly +0.809%
增长率 +0.034%
假设最高赔率为 6.25
博彩公司预测分布
14.85%16.71%17.17%20.48%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.355.705.606.2522.99%17.55%17.86%16.00%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Sydney Swans (主队)：83.32%；Melbourne Demons (客队)：16.68%。 对于“Melbourne Demons (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为6.00。 当时有9家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.25，对应+4.25%的正期望值。
有 2 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (25 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 05:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 05:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 05:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 05:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 04:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 5.3% | 2026-05-03 02:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.15%EV -9.18%E -8.42%K -102.01%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV +4.25%E +0.680%K +0.809%G +0.034% | 7.7% | 2026-05-03 04:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +0.078%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-03 02:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -8.35%E -7.59%K -83.48%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV +0.078%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-03 04:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.76%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.83I 17.15%NM 16.24%EV -2.76%E -0.473%K -0.571%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-03 04:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.26%E -0.562%K -0.679%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 05:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.09%E -0.712%K -0.861%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 04:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -6.59%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 05:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-03 05:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 04:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 04:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 04:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 03:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.01%E -4.40%K -35.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-03 02:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -7.51%E -6.77%K -68.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -8.26%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.43%E -2.37%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 12:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.79%EV -11.68%E -11.02%K -194.67%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.21%EV -14.93%E -2.93%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-03 04:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.88%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.60%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.52%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.68%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.48%EV -27.44%E -6.31%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-03 05:04 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (3)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-03 05:14 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (2)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 选项 3 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.75% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51% | 125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 05:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.75% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51% | 125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 05:14 |