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Sydney Swans v Greater Western Sydney Giants
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sydney Swans (Local)
Prediction 76.78%1.30fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -6.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.77%76.88%76.65%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.231.241.2886.96%81.03%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit)
Prediction 23.22%4.31fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.12%23.35%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.953.904.4028.17%25.30%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 76.78%; Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit): 23.22%. For Greater Western Sydney Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.86%E -6.55%K -39.30%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +2.15%E +0.489%K +0.632%G +0.014% | 6.1% | 2026-04-17 09:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -8.63%E -7.25%K -45.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -0.172%E -0.040%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-17 08:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.39%E -7.96%K -52.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -0.172%E -0.040%K -0.052%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-17 06:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.56%E -4.52%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -1.33%E -0.313%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.74%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.49%E -0.594%K -0.779%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.79%E -3.86%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.81%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.79%E -3.86%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.81%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.02%E -3.22%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 13:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.02%E -3.22%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 08:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.79%E -3.86%K -19.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.56%E -4.52%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 23:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.56%E -4.52%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-16 23:03 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.14%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-17 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 04:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 04:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -9.46%E -2.43%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 08:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.44%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.56%EV -10.15%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-17 09:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 08:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 08:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 08:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.62%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 08:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.53%EV -11.70%E -10.17%K -77.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.47%EV -12.94%E -3.45%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -1.72%E -1.34%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -16.42%E -4.56%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 12:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -8.63%E -7.25%K -45.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -16.42%E -4.56%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-17 09:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -3.25%E -2.58%K -12.51%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -17.58%E -4.95%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-17 08:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 0.7% | 2026-04-17 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 09:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-04-17 09:40 |