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Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 08:11 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 63.91%1.56fair odd
EV +0.977%
Edge +0.618%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.79%64.40%63.93%68.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.451.451.5874.07%68.79%68.97%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV +10.08%
Edge +3.30%
Kelly +4.92%
Growth +0.495%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.31%35.60%36.07%39.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.672.633.0541.67%37.52%38.10%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 63.91%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 36.09%. For Brisbane Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.08%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -11.17%E -8.03%K -28.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV +10.08%E +3.30%K +4.92%G +0.495%4.7%2026-03-14 08:09
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.47%E +2.19%K +3.32%G +0.215%5.3%2026-03-14 08:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +6.47%E +2.19%K +3.32%G +0.215%5.3%2026-03-14 08:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -13.72%E -10.16%K -39.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV +4.66%E +1.61%K +2.45%G +0.114%8.6%2026-03-14 08:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +3.58%E +1.25%K +1.91%G +0.069%6.3%2026-03-14 08:09
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -10.53%E -7.52%K -26.32%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +3.58%E +1.25%K +1.91%G +0.069%6.3%2026-03-14 08:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.05%E +0.376%K +0.586%G +0.006%4.7%2026-03-14 08:09
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -2.19%E -0.810%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 08:09
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.18%EV -4.78%E -3.20%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.82%EV -3.64%E -1.36%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 08:09
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 08:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 08:10
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -8.61%E -6.02%K -20.02%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -5.08%E -1.93%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 08:10
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.44%E -2.08%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 08:10
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -6.16%E -2.37%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 08:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.68%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.55%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.32%EV -7.61%E -2.97%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-14 08:09
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.86%E -1.88%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 08:10
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.33%E -5.06%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-14 08:10
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -7.97%E -5.54%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -7.97%E -3.12%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 08:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -13.72%E -10.16%K -39.21%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -9.05%E -3.59%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 08:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.22%E -1.45%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 08:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 08:10
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -4.78%E -3.20%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.77%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 08:10
Bet Right🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV +0.977%E +0.618%K +1.68%G +0.016%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -11.58%E -4.73%K -7.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-14 08:09
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.14%E -2.76%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -13.38%E -5.58%K -9.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-03-14 08:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%0.7%2026-03-14 08:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 63.66%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.34%2.7%2026-03-14 08:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-03-14 08:10
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.24%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-03-14 08:10