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Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 09:40 UTC

Final: Sydney Swans 71–87 Adelaide Crows

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sydney Swans (Local)

Prediction 66.22%1.51fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.10%65.95%66.22%68.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.421.421.4975.76%70.49%70.42%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 33.78%2.96fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.54%34.05%33.78%35.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.792.803.0639.22%35.87%35.71%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sydney Swans (Local): 66.22%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 33.78%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS1.41I 70.92%NM 68.46%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.54%EV +3.37%E +1.10%K +1.63%G +0.055%3.6%2026-07-17 07:15
Bet Right1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.350%E -0.119%K -0.180%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 07:40
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 09:15
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 07:10
Betr (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 09:20
Dabble (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.64%E -3.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 09:30
Coolbet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 09:15
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 05:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 05:49
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 09:20
DraftKings1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 09:20
Unibet (NL)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:35
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.64%E -3.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 08:54
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 09:35
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 09:20
Coral1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 04:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 04:05
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 03:20
Marathon Bet1.41I 70.92%NM 65.94%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.06%EV -7.78%E -2.85%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 08:54
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.80%E -3.26%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-16 12:30
Pinnacle1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -1.33%E -0.894%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -10.15%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 09:35
NordicBet1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -10.48%E -3.96%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 04:15
Betsson1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -10.48%E -3.96%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 04:14
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.59%E -9.54%K -39.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.50%E -4.39%K -7.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-17 08:59
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -7.95%E -5.72%K -20.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -13.86%E -5.44%K -8.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-17 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-17 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-17 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-17 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas1.42I 70.42%NM 64.78%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.07%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.7%2026-07-17 02:05