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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Sydney Swans v Adelaide Crows

开赛时间： 2026-07-17 09:40 UTC

最终结果： Sydney Swans 71–87 Adelaide Crows

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

28 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Sydney Swans (主队)

预测 66.22%1.51公平赔率
EV -1.33%
优势 -0.894%
Kelly -2.72%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.49

博彩公司预测分布
64.10%65.95%66.22%68.46%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.321.421.421.4975.76%70.49%70.42%67.11%最小值均值中位数最大值

Adelaide Crows (客队)

预测 33.78%2.96公平赔率
EV +3.37%
优势 +1.10%
Kelly +1.63%
增长率 +0.055%

假设最高赔率为 3.06

博彩公司预测分布
31.54%34.05%33.78%35.90%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.552.792.803.0639.22%35.87%35.71%32.68%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Sydney Swans (主队)：66.22%；Adelaide Crows (客队)：33.78%。 对于“Adelaide Crows (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.96。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.06，对应+3.37%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (28 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼利润率更新时间
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.46%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.54%EV +3.37%E +1.10%K +1.63%G +0.055%3.6%2026-07-17 07:15
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -0.350%E -0.119%K -0.180%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 07:40
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 09:15
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-17 07:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.04%E -0.703%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 09:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.64%E -3.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 09:30
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-17 09:15
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 05:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 05:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 09:20
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.73%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-17 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.42%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 09:30
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.64%E -3.22%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 08:54
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.30%E -3.71%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-17 09:20
Coral🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 04:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-17 04:05
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.11%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 03:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.94%EV -6.63%E -4.70%K -16.17%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.06%EV -7.78%E -2.85%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-17 08:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.29%E -5.21%K -18.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.80%E -3.26%K -5.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-16 12:30
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -1.33%E -0.894%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -10.15%E -3.81%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-17 09:35
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -10.48%E -3.96%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 04:15
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -5.97%E -4.20%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -10.48%E -3.96%K -6.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-17 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 66.50%EV -12.59%E -9.54%K -39.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.50%EV -11.50%E -4.39%K -7.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-17 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -7.95%E -5.72%K -20.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -13.86%E -5.44%K -8.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-17 09:25
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-07-17 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-17 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%0.9%2026-07-17 09:30

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2选项 3利润率 ▲更新时间
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.78%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.07%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.7%2026-07-17 02:05