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St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 03:05 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 88–107 Sydney Swans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 38.26%2.61fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.522%
Kelly +0.839%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.52%38.13%38.12%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.442.402.6544.44%41.00%41.67%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 61.74%1.62fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.49%61.87%61.88%64.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.531.541.6070.92%65.24%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 38.26%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 61.74%. For St Kilda Saints (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.38%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV +1.38%E +0.522%K +0.839%G +0.012%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -9.86%E -6.75%K -21.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 02:44
Coral🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV +1.38%E +0.522%K +0.839%G +0.012%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -9.86%E -6.75%K -21.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-29 06:23
BetUS🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV +0.619%E +0.235%K +0.380%G +0.002%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-31 23:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.44%E -0.958%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-01 03:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.44%E -0.958%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.47%E -7.22%K -23.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-30 12:15
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.92%E -3.19%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 02:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.92%E -3.19%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-01 02:34
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 02:54
SportsBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.12%E -2.06%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 02:55
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.30%E -2.77%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 03:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.30%E -2.77%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 02:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.39%E -4.92%K -14.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-01 02:59
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 03:04
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 02:44
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 02:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 02:44
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 02:44
Bet Right🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.95%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -2.45%E -1.55%K -4.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 03:00
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 02:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 02:49
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 02:49
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.07%E -1.95%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 02:44
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 02:50
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 03:04
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -11.24%E -4.85%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -12.94%E -9.18%K -31.57%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-01 02:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -13.92%E -6.19%K -11.14%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.16%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.34%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-01 03:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-08-01 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-08-01 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%0.7%2026-08-01 03:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-08-01 03:04
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%9.2%2026-08-01 03:04

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