The School of Odds

St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans

2026-08-01 03:05 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -45.25%
Kelly -82.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%0.00%0.00%43.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.212.212.2145%45%45%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -59.88%
Kelly -149.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%0.00%0.00%56.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.671.671.6760%60%60%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%5.1%2026-07-21 04:14
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-07-21 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-07-21 06:10