语言:简体中文
St Kilda Saints v Sydney Swans
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
St Kilda Saints (主队)
预测 38.26%2.61公平赔率
EV +1.38%
优势 +0.522%
Kelly +0.839%
增长率 +0.012%
假设最高赔率为 2.65
博彩公司预测分布
35.52%38.13%38.12%40.51%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.252.442.402.6544.44%41.00%41.67%37.74%最小值均值中位数最大值
Sydney Swans (客队)
预测 61.74%1.62公平赔率
EV -1.21%
优势 -0.758%
Kelly -2.02%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.60
博彩公司预测分布
59.49%61.87%61.88%64.48%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.411.531.541.6070.92%65.24%64.94%62.50%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：St Kilda Saints (主队)：38.26%；Sydney Swans (客队)：61.74%。 对于“St Kilda Saints (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.61。 当时有3家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.65，对应+1.38%的正期望值。
有 2 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (26 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 ▼ | 客队 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV +1.38%E +0.522%K +0.839%G +0.012% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -9.86%E -6.75%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 02:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV +1.38%E +0.522%K +0.839%G +0.012% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -9.86%E -6.75%K -21.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-29 06:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV +0.619%E +0.235%K +0.380%G +0.002% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-31 23:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -2.44%E -0.958%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.44%E -0.958%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.47%E -7.22%K -23.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-30 12:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.92%E -3.19%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.92%E -3.19%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.35%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 02:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -5.12%E -2.06%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-01 02:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.30%E -2.77%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.30%E -2.77%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 02:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.39%E -4.92%K -14.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-01 02:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 02:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 02:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 02:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.68%E -2.36%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 02:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -8.95%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -2.45%E -1.55%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 03:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 02:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.21%E -0.758%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 02:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.07%E -1.95%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 02:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -5.53%E -3.62%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-01 02:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -10.09%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -6.15%E -4.05%K -11.83%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -11.24%E -4.85%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -12.94%E -9.18%K -31.57%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-01 02:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -13.92%E -6.19%K -11.14%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.16%EV -8.00%E -5.37%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (3)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-08-01 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-08-01 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 03:05 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (2)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 选项 3 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92% | 8.5% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87% | 80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15% | 9.2% | 2026-08-01 03:04 |