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St Kilda Saints v Hawthorn Hawks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
St Kilda Saints (Local)
Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV +4.12%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.70%28.11%27.96%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.383.403.7033.33%29.58%29.41%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)
Prediction 71.86%1.39fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -13.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.28%71.89%72.04%74.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3381.97%76.90%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 28.14%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 71.86%. For St Kilda Saints (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +4.12%E +1.11%K +1.52%G +0.063% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -8.02%E -6.26%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV +4.12%E +1.11%K +1.52%G +0.063% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -8.02%E -6.26%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 08:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +1.30%E +0.361%K +0.501%G +0.007% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.86%E -4.48%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-28 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.30%E +0.361%K +0.501%G +0.007% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.30%E -5.66%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 08:08 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.30%E +0.361%K +0.501%G +0.007% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.30%E -5.66%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 08:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +1.30%E +0.361%K +0.501%G +0.007% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.30%E -5.66%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.51%E -0.432%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.51%E -0.432%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.51%E -0.432%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.51%E -0.432%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.14%E -3.90%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-28 09:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-28 09:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-28 09:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-28 04:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-28 05:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-28 00:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.86%E -4.48%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-28 09:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-28 08:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-28 09:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.02%E -6.26%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-28 04:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-28 09:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-28 05:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -5.86%E -4.48%K -18.91%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-28 08:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-28 07:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -6.58%E -5.06%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-28 07:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.08%EV -12.33%E -10.11%K -56.04%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-28 09:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -8.02%E -6.26%K -28.64%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-28 09:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -15.58%E -5.19%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.43%E -3.33%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-28 08:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-05-28 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-05-28 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 0.4% | 2026-05-28 09:20 |