Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues

2026-08-09 09:20 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 59.45%1.68fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -5.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.45%59.45%60.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.571.581.6267.57%63.83%63.49%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 40.55%2.47fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.55%40.55%40.55%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.332.382.4046.08%42.89%41.93%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.69%E -2.28%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.77%E -3.90%K -7.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-30 03:54
SportsBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -6.07%E -3.84%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -3.09%E -1.29%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-30 03:54
Bet Right1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.07%E -3.84%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.50%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-30 04:04
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.66%E -4.24%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 04:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.66%E -4.24%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-30 04:25
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 59.45%EV -12.01%E -8.12%K -25.02%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.55%EV -12.01%E -5.54%K -10.27%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-30 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.62%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.38%18.5%2026-07-30 05:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.62%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.38%18.5%2026-07-30 05:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 58.62%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.38%18.5%2026-07-30 05:35