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St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 09:23 UTC

Final: St Kilda Saints 62–106 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Kilda Saints (Local)

Prediction 49.20%2.03fair odd
EV +3.33%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.101%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%48.57%49.61%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.921.912.1057.14%51.96%52.36%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 50.80%1.97fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.43%50.39%56.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.851.881.9160.61%54.08%53.19%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Kilda Saints (Local): 49.20%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 50.80%. For St Kilda Saints (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.33%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV +3.33%E +1.58%K +3.03%G +0.101%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -13.65%E -8.03%K -19.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 22:50
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV +3.33%E +1.58%K +3.03%G +0.101%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -13.65%E -8.03%K -19.49%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 22:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV +3.33%E +1.58%K +3.03%G +0.101%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -16.19%E -9.81%K -24.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 03:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -3.56%E -1.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -6.53%E -3.55%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 07:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -4.05%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.52%EV -2.98%E -1.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-09 09:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -4.54%E -2.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -9.07%E -5.07%K -11.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 09:10
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -5.04%E -2.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-09 09:15
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.50%E -2.40%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.50%E -2.40%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.50%E -2.40%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -4.50%E -2.40%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
Coolbet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.02%E -3.15%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.98%E -1.56%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-09 09:18
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.02%E -3.15%K -6.62%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.04%E -3.85%K -8.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 09:20
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:05
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:04
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
Neds🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 08:15
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:10
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.49%E -1.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 09:05
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -6.51%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -5.52%E -2.97%K -6.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 09:09
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.99%E -4.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.01%E -2.68%K -5.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-09 09:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.86%EV -10.94%E -6.04%K -13.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -8.57%E -4.76%K -10.71%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 09:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -13.89%E -7.94%K -18.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.00%EV -11.11%E -6.35%K -14.81%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-09 09:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-08-09 09:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-08-09 09:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%0.3%2026-08-09 09:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.20%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.7%2026-08-09 09:20
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.20%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.7%2026-08-09 09:20
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.4%2026-08-09 09:10

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