The School of Odds
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Richmond Tigers v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 02:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Tigers (Local)

Prediction 19.76%5.06fair odd
EV +6.69%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.56%19.67%20.00%22.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.854.805.4023.53%20.60%20.83%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 80.24%1.25fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -5.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.55%80.33%80.00%82.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.171.171.2390.91%85.53%85.47%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 19.76%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 80.24%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.06. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.69%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +6.69%E +1.24%K +1.52%G +0.102%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 02:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +6.69%E +1.24%K +1.52%G +0.102%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 02:14
Marathon Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV +3.72%E +0.709%K +0.876%G +0.033%1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -9.33%E -8.25%K -71.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 02:12
Grosvenor🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.92%E -5.96%K -43.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 02:15
TABtouch🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.92%E -5.96%K -43.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 02:14
Casumo🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.92%E -5.96%K -43.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 02:15
Unibet (NL)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.92%E -5.96%K -43.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 02:14
Unibet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV +2.73%E +0.526%K +0.651%G +0.018%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-21 02:15
BetUS🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.12%E -5.23%K -35.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-21 02:14
Coral🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 02:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.72%E -6.71%K -51.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 02:14
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -1.22%E -0.243%K -0.304%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -9.33%E -8.25%K -71.73%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-21 02:14
PlayUp🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -5.17%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-21 02:14
Coolbet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.17%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.51%E -3.79%K -23.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 02:13
Betr (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.17%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.51%E -3.79%K -23.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 02:15
SportsBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.14%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.31%E -4.50%K -29.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 02:15
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.14%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.31%E -4.50%K -29.52%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 02:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.12%E -1.98%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.31%E -4.50%K -29.52%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-21 02:15
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.09%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 02:15
TAB🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.09%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 02:15
Dabble (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.09%E -2.47%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.31%E -4.50%K -29.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 02:14
Pinnacle🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.20%EV -11.89%E -2.66%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.80%EV -3.71%E -3.09%K -18.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 02:14
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -13.07%E -2.97%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.00%EV -11.73%E -10.67%K -117.32%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-21 02:14
Everygame🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -15.05%E -3.50%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -5.31%E -4.50%K -29.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-21 02:01
Bet Right🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -16.03%E -3.77%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -1.30%E -1.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-21 02:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%0.8%2026-03-21 02:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-03-21 02:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-03-21 02:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.36%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-03-21 02:15
Betsson🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.36%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-03-21 02:15