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Richmond Tigers v Adelaide Crows
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers (Local)
Prediction 16.25%6.15fair odd
EV +5.62%
Edge +0.864%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.25%16.60%16.36%21.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.746.006.5023.26%17.42%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adelaide Crows (Visit)
Prediction 83.75%1.19fair odd
EV -0.336%
Edge -0.282%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.47%83.40%83.64%85.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.121.121.1995.24%89.17%89.29%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Tigers (Local): 16.25%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 83.75%. For Richmond Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV +5.62%E +0.864%K +1.02%G +0.057% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -9.55%E -8.84%K -119.36%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 10:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.75%EV +2.37%E +0.376%K +0.447%G +0.011% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -8.71%E -7.99%K -96.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 05:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +1.55%E +0.249%K +0.296%G +0.005% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 11:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV +0.742%E +0.120%K +0.143%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 22:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.36%E -4.74%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 04:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.36%E -4.74%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 04:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.36%E -4.74%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 23:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.36%E -4.74%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 04:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 20:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 20:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 20:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 20:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 15:44 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.04%E -6.34%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-09 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.04%E -6.34%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 22:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -2.51%E -0.418%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.04%E -6.34%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -5.76%E -0.993%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.52%E -3.97%K -32.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 03:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -5.76%E -0.993%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-07 20:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.57%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.36%E -4.74%K -41.24%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -6.57%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 03:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -10.63%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.52%E -3.97%K -32.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 04:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.54%EV -13.88%E -2.62%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.46%EV -12.06%E -11.49%K -241.22%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-05-10 04:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -18.76%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-09 15:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -18.76%E -3.75%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -6.20%E -5.53%K -51.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-09 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.27%EV -24.44%E -5.26%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.73%EV -7.04%E -6.34%K -63.96%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-10 05:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.52%EV -25.09%E -5.44%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.48%EV -0.336%E -0.282%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-10 05:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -30.13%E -7.01%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -1.17%E -0.995%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-10 05:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 05:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 05:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.90% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.10% | 0.3% | 2026-05-10 05:09 |