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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Richmond Tigers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)
Prediction 78.51%1.27fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -3.46%
Kelly -19.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.16%78.65%78.27%81.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.201.201.2288.50%83.61%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Richmond Tigers (Visit)
Prediction 21.49%4.65fair odd
EV +10.04%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +2.44%
Growth +0.245%
assuming max odds 5.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.47%21.35%21.73%24.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.394.405.1227.78%22.78%22.73%19.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 78.51%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 21.49%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.53%EV -8.93%E -7.70%K -55.83%G +0.000% | 5.12I 19.53%NM 18.47%EV +10.04%E +1.96%K +2.44%G +0.245% | 5.7% | 2026-04-19 01:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -8.15%E -6.96%K -47.92%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +9.61%E +1.89%K +2.35%G +0.225% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -10.50%E -9.21%K -75.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV +7.47%E +1.49%K +1.87%G +0.139% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 01:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -9.72%E -8.45%K -64.78%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV +5.32%E +1.08%K +1.36%G +0.072% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 02:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.13%E -0.246%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -7.36%E -6.24%K -40.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -1.13%E -0.246%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 02:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-18 13:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.28%E -0.729%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 02:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.76%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.24%EV -4.36%E -0.979%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 02:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.01%E -4.14%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 02:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.01%E -4.14%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 02:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.01%E -4.14%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 02:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.01%E -4.14%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-19 02:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.43%E -1.23%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.93%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 22:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -6.93%E -1.60%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -7.58%E -1.76%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.01%E -4.14%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -9.73%E -2.32%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 02:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.03%E -3.51%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -5.79%E -4.83%K -28.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -14.03%E -3.51%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 02:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 77.97%EV -11.29%E -9.99%K -86.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.03%EV -14.03%E -3.51%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-19 03:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -18.33%E -4.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-18 15:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -4.22%E -3.46%K -19.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -18.33%E -4.82%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-18 15:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -6.58%E -5.53%K -34.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -22.62%E -6.28%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.8% | 2026-04-19 02:55 |