The School of Odds
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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 02:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 44.09%2.27fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%44.01%43.95%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.152.152.3551.28%46.56%46.51%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 55.91%1.79fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.965%
Kelly +2.14%
Growth +0.038%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%55.99%56.05%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.681.681.8265.36%59.56%59.52%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 44.09%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 55.91%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV +3.61%E +1.54%K +2.67%G +0.097%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -9.98%E -6.20%K -16.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 19:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.41%E +0.611%K +1.08%G +0.015%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 23:19
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +1.41%E +0.611%K +1.08%G +0.015%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 23:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +1.41%E +0.611%K +1.08%G +0.015%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.34%E -8.61%K -24.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-13 07:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -0.798%E -0.355%K -0.639%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.98%E -6.20%K -16.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 23:10
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -0.798%E -0.355%K -0.639%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -9.98%E -6.20%K -16.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 23:09
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.07%E -3.61%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 02:05
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.63%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 01:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.07%E -3.61%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 01:45
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.07%E -3.61%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 01:45
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.07%E -3.61%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 01:45
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.07%E -3.61%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 01:45
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.21%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.83%E -2.23%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 01:50
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.21%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.95%E -2.91%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 01:55
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.21%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.63%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-15 01:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.72%E -1.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 01:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.72%E -1.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 01:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.28%E -1.89%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 01:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.83%E -2.23%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 01:55
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.83%E -2.23%K -5.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 02:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.62%E -4.69%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.95%E -2.91%K -7.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 01:50
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.62%E -4.69%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.75%E -4.70%K -11.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 02:00
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.62%E -4.69%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -7.75%E -4.70%K -11.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 02:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -9.62%E -4.69%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -14.46%E -9.45%K -27.28%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-15 02:04
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -10.94%E -5.42%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +1.76%E +0.965%K +2.14%G +0.038%4.5%2026-03-15 02:05
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.82%E -5.91%K -11.82%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +0.639%E +0.355%K +0.798%G +0.005%5.6%2026-03-15 01:45
Everygame🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.03%E -7.19%K -14.76%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -2.16%E -1.23%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 01:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.13%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.87%0.4%2026-03-15 02:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%0.6%2026-03-15 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.86%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.14%0.9%2026-03-15 02:05