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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Fremantle Dockers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)
Prediction 22.95%4.36fair odd
EV -0.619%
Edge -0.143%
Kelly -0.186%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.42%23.19%22.79%26.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.034.184.3329.41%24.79%23.95%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fremantle Dockers (Visit)
Prediction 77.05%1.30fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -11.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.43%76.81%77.21%78.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.221.221.2686.96%81.73%81.97%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 22.95%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 77.05%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.33, with an expected value of -0.619%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -0.619%E -0.143%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -9.08%E -7.70%K -50.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -1.31%E -0.304%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-06 03:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -1.31%E -0.304%K -0.396%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.08%E -7.70%K -50.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-06 04:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.23%E -4.25%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-06 03:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 03:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 03:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 03:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 03:29 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -2.46%E -0.578%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-06 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.34%EV -2.68%E -0.633%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.66%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.60%E -0.858%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.23%E -4.25%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-06 04:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.60%E -0.858%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-06 03:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.60%E -0.858%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -4.75%E -1.14%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.19%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-06 03:48 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.19%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.46%E -3.60%K -18.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-06 03:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.19%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.46%E -3.60%K -18.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-06 03:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.19%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.00%E -4.92%K -27.28%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-06 02:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.19%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.54%E -6.29%K -37.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-31 12:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.91I 25.58%NM 24.37%EV -10.26%E -2.62%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.63%EV -2.92%E -2.32%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-06 01:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.93%E -3.71%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-06 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.93%E -3.71%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-02 10:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.93%E -3.71%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.69%E -2.95%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-02 13:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -15.08%E -4.08%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -11.39%E -9.91%K -75.96%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-06 03:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -19.67%E -5.62%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -4.46%E -3.60%K -18.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-04 16:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -19.67%E -5.62%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.84%EV -4.46%E -3.60%K -18.58%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-04 17:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -21.96%E -6.46%K -9.15%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.43%EV -5.23%E -4.25%K -22.74%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-06-06 04:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-06-06 03:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-06-06 03:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.57% | 0.9% | 2026-06-06 03:50 |