Language:English
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Essendon Bombers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)
Prediction 65.99%1.52fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.678%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%65.89%66.22%67.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.451.5073.53%69.36%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Essendon Bombers (Visit)
Prediction 34.01%2.94fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.471%
Kelly -0.719%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%34.11%33.78%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.702.9040.00%36.95%37.04%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 65.99%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 34.01%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -1.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -1.02%E -0.678%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -10.89%E -4.16%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-28 01:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.34%E -1.58%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.87%E -3.72%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 04:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -2.34%E -1.58%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -9.87%E -3.72%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 04:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.00%E -2.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.00%E -2.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 04:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.00%E -2.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 04:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.00%E -2.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 04:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -3.00%E -2.04%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-28 04:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.30%EV -3.66%E -2.50%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.70%EV -10.55%E -4.01%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 04:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.77%E -1.70%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-25 13:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 05:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.47%E -2.35%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-28 05:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.14%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.86%EV -7.83%E -2.89%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-28 05:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -13.27%E -5.20%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 03:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.32%E -2.98%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -13.27%E -5.20%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-28 03:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.98%E -3.46%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 02:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.98%E -3.46%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-28 02:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -4.98%E -3.46%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -11.57%E -4.45%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-28 05:06 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.64%E -3.94%K -13.11%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.07%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.30%E -4.43%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.37%E -0.471%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.30%E -4.43%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.37%E -0.471%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-28 05:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.30%E -4.43%K -14.99%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.07%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 05:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.94%EV -6.96%E -4.93%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -14.97%E -5.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.62%E -5.44%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.17%E -3.03%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-27 18:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.90%EV -8.28%E -5.95%K -21.22%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.10%EV -4.43%E -1.58%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-06-28 05:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.94%E -6.48%K -23.52%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -1.37%E -0.471%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-28 04:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.77%EV -10.26%E -7.54%K -28.49%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.23%EV -14.97%E -5.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 0.7% | 2026-06-28 05:10 |