The School of Odds
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North Melbourne Kangaroos v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 02:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local)

Prediction 14.59%6.85fair odd
EV +8.00%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 7.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.53%14.70%14.62%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.706.206.227.4021.28%16.13%16.06%13.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 85.41%1.17fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -26.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.17%85.30%85.38%87.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.111.111.1397.09%90.47%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local): 14.59%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 85.41%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.53%EV +8.00%E +1.08%K +1.25%G +0.100%1.06I 94.34%NM 87.47%EV -9.47%E -8.93%K -157.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 02:29
Pinnacle🎯6.65I 15.04%NM 14.19%EV -2.94%E -0.443%K -0.521%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.81%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 02:20
PlayUp🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-11 01:40
TAB🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 06:20
DraftKings🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 02:20
BetUS🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 01:34
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 21:34
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 21:35
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 21:35
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 21:35
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 21:35
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.13%E -0.790%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.76%E -7.19%K -97.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 14:45
Coolbet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -6.59%E -1.03%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-10 06:20
Bet Right🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -8.78%E -1.41%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 02:10
Betr (AU)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -9.51%E -1.53%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-10 01:40
Dabble (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.49%E -3.09%K -26.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 02:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 02:20
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 02:14
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 02:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 02:05
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.35%E -3.88%K -36.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 02:15
Coral🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 23:23
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-09 23:24
Everygame🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.05%E -5.50%K -60.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 02:10
NetBet (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -12.43%E -2.07%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -12.03%E -11.68%K -401.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-10 21:39
Betsson🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -19.73%E -3.59%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 03:34
NordicBet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -19.73%E -3.59%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.20%E -4.68%K -47.27%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-10 03:34
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.83%EV -31.40%E -6.68%K -8.49%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 81.17%EV -6.91%E -6.34%K -76.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-11 02:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%0.8%2026-04-11 02:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%0.8%2026-04-11 02:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%0.9%2026-04-11 02:30