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Melbourne Demons v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 04:16 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.869%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%38.80%38.46%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.452.5544.44%41.24%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 61.31%1.63fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.706%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%61.20%61.54%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.541.531.6570.42%64.97%65.36%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 38.69%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 61.31%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.17%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV +1.17%E +0.706%K +1.79%G +0.021%4.1%2026-03-15 04:15
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -12.95%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +1.17%E +0.706%K +1.79%G +0.021%5.1%2026-03-15 04:15
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -9.08%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -1.29%E -0.799%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 04:14
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.08%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.90%E -1.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 04:15
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -9.08%E -3.87%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -2.51%E -1.58%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 04:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.35%E -2.79%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 04:14
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.97%E -3.20%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 04:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.97%E -3.20%K -9.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 04:14
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.02%E -4.79%K -8.48%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.97%E -3.20%K -9.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 04:14
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.35%E -0.528%K -0.869%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.58%E -3.62%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 04:15
Coolbet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -2.51%E -0.995%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 04:14
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 04:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 04:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 04:14
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 04:15
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.80%E -4.48%K -13.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 04:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.87%EV -7.54%E -3.15%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.13%EV -6.80%E -4.48%K -13.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 04:14
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.42%E -4.91%K -14.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 04:15
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -7.42%E -4.91%K -14.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 04:15
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.03%E -5.35%K -16.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 04:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.03%E -5.35%K -16.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 04:15
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -4.06%E -1.64%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -8.03%E -5.35%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 04:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.22%E -2.13%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -8.03%E -5.35%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-15 04:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.03%E -5.35%K -16.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.97%EV -10.25%E -4.42%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.03%EV -12.94%E -9.11%K -30.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-15 04:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%0.5%2026-03-15 04:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24%0.6%2026-03-15 04:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%0.9%2026-03-15 04:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.01%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.3%2026-03-15 04:15
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.01%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.3%2026-03-15 04:15