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Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 05:15 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 111–65 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 86.20%1.16fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -28.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.94%86.47%86.20%88.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.091.101.1298.04%91.45%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 13.80%7.24fair odd
EV +11.81%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.197%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.48%13.53%13.80%16.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.586.568.1017.39%15.20%15.24%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 86.20%; Richmond Tigers (Visit): 13.80%. For Richmond Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.81%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.52%EV -9.49%E -9.04%K -189.88%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.48%EV +11.81%E +1.46%K +1.66%G +0.197%7.6%2026-07-12 05:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.37%E -0.482%K -0.562%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 05:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.77%E -7.26%K -111.00%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.37%E -0.482%K -0.562%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-05 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -6.13%E -0.902%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-12 05:09
Bet Right🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-12 05:04
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 05:14
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 05:14
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 05:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 05:14
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -8.89%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 05:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -8.89%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 05:09
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.64%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.36%EV -9.45%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 05:05
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 05:09
TAB🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 05:04
DraftKings🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 05:04
Coral🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.05%E -5.55%K -67.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.05%E -5.55%K -67.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 04:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 86.44%EV -12.08%E -11.84%K -604.00%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-12 05:14
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -13.73%E -2.20%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 05:09
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.46%E -3.09%K -28.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.18%E -2.86%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 05:10
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -17.18%E -2.86%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 02:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.77%EV -8.63%E -8.14%K -143.87%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.23%EV -18.56%E -3.15%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-12 05:04
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -20.63%E -3.59%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-12 05:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%0.7%2026-07-12 05:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-12 05:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-07-12 05:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-07-12 05:14
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.1%2026-07-12 05:14
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.08%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%9.8%2026-07-12 04:24

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