Melbourne Demons v Richmond Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 05:15 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 111–65 Richmond Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

86%

14%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 86.20%1.16fair odd

EV -3.46%

Edge -3.09%

Kelly -28.84%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.94%86.47%86.20%88.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.021.091.101.1298%91%91%89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Richmond Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 13.80%7.24fair odd

EV +11.81%

Edge +1.46%

Kelly +1.66%

Growth +0.197%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.48%13.53%13.80%16.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

5.756.586.568.1017%15%15%12%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

3 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.05I 95.24%NM 88.52%EV -9.49%E -9.04%K -189.88%G +0.000%	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.48%EV +11.81%E +1.46%K +1.66%G +0.197%	7.6%	2026-07-12 05:14
Betr (AU)	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.37%E -0.482%K -0.562%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-12 05:04
Tipico (DE)	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.77%E -7.26%K -111.00%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.37%E -0.482%K -0.562%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-05 11:00
PointsBet (AU)	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV -6.13%E -0.902%K -1.06%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-12 05:09
Bet Right	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-12 05:04
Casumo	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-12 05:14
Grosvenor	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-12 05:14
TABtouch	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-12 05:14
Unibet (NL)	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -6.82%E -1.01%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-12 05:14
Neds	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -8.89%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-12 05:09
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -8.89%E -1.35%K -1.59%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-12 05:09
Pinnacle	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.64%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.56I 15.24%NM 14.36%EV -9.45%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-12 05:05
PlayUp	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-12 05:09
TAB	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-07-12 05:04
DraftKings	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-12 05:04
Coral	1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.05%E -5.55%K -67.18%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-08 01:24
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -6.05%E -5.55%K -67.18%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-08 04:14
NetBet (FR)	1.02I 98.04%NM 86.44%EV -12.08%E -11.84%K -604.00%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.56%EV -10.27%E -1.58%K -1.87%G +0.000%	13.4%	2026-07-12 05:14
SportsBet	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.32%E -3.89%K -39.29%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -13.73%E -2.20%K -2.61%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-12 05:09
Paddy Power	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.46%E -3.09%K -28.84%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.18%E -2.86%K -3.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-12 05:10
Everygame	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -17.18%E -2.86%K -3.44%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-12 02:24
Unibet (FR)	1.06I 94.34%NM 84.77%EV -8.63%E -8.14%K -143.87%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 15.23%EV -18.56%E -3.15%K -3.79%G +0.000%	11.3%	2026-07-12 05:04
Unibet	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -5.18%E -4.71%K -51.84%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -20.63%E -3.59%K -4.34%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-07-12 05:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89%	8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11%	0.7%	2026-07-12 05:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%	7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%	0.9%	2026-07-12 05:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%	7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%	0.9%	2026-07-12 05:14

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
NordicBet	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%	125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%	9.1%	2026-07-12 05:14
Betsson	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.60%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.67%	125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%	9.1%	2026-07-12 05:14
LeoVegas	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.08%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%	100.00I 1.00%NM 0.91%	9.8%	2026-07-12 04:24